ABC News does not yet have enough information to make a projection, but based on exit polling, “yes” is leading in both the abortion and marijuana ballot measures. And on both issues, the “yes” vote is the more liberal option: enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution and legalizing recreational marijuana.

— Leah Askarinam, 538

One of the largest counties in Kentucky is almost done reporting: Fayette County, home of Lexington. Beshear is doing quite well there, winning 72 percent to 28 percent. For comparison, Beshear won it 66 percent to 30 percent in 2019.

There are a lot of complete or near-complete counties like that where Beshear is running ahead of his 2019 self. Based on these patterns, it looks like Beshear is on track to win.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

ABC News projects that Republican incumbent Secretary of State Adams will win reelection in Kentucky. Adams faced challenger Democrat Wheatley, who wanted to add polling locations and expand voting, according to reporting from The Courier Journal.
—Monica Potts, 538

To follow up on Geoffrey's latest Kentucky post, we now have 95 percent of the expected vote in from Pendleton County, and 93 percent from Rowan. Statewide, in counties reporting 90 percent of the expected vote or more — my preferred threshold to hit before I even look at the county data — Beshear is doing 2.5-3 percentage points better than he did last time. That would seem to suggest a narrow win — if, and that's a big if, it holds up statewide.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538

Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, abortion rights issues have won every time they’ve been on the ballot. Tonight, we’ll see if that trend holds as Ohio voters will decide whether to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution.

But more broadly, abortion rights proved to be a motivator for Democratic voters in last year’s midterm elections, helping propel their party to better-than-expected midterm election results. Abortion remains an important issue for Democrats: 86 percent view it as very or somewhat important in the Oct. 25 weekly YouGov/The Economist poll. It’s a sharp contrast to Republicans, who are much less likely to support abortion rights than the general electorate, and also less likely to rank it as an important issue: only 68 percent did so in the YouGov/Economist poll.

That could keep Democrats likely to show up at the polls even when abortion is only implicitly on the ballot, like in Virginia, where Republicans have a chance to win full control of the state government. Hoping to drive turnout, Virginia Democrats have campaigned on abortion rights in competitive legislative districts this year, warning voters that Virginia could join other Southern, Republican-led states in banning abortion. Republicans in the state have denounced these efforts as fearmongering.

If the Ohio abortion-rights amendment wins and Democrats once again outperform expectations in other elections, it could be a sign that abortion is still driving Democrats to the polls. But no matter what happens tonight, abortion will likely continue to shape the presidential primary and election season that begins next year.

—Monica Potts, 538