Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia

Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.

Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.

As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

‘Yes’ seems to be leading in Ohio (so far)

ABC News does not yet have enough information to make a projection, but based on exit polling, “yes” is leading in both the abortion and marijuana ballot measures. And on both issues, the “yes” vote is the more liberal option: enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution and legalizing recreational marijuana.

— Leah Askarinam, 538


It’s looking good for Democrats in Kentucky

One of the largest counties in Kentucky is almost done reporting: Fayette County, home of Lexington. Beshear is doing quite well there, winning 72 percent to 28 percent. For comparison, Beshear won it 66 percent to 30 percent in 2019.

There are a lot of complete or near-complete counties like that where Beshear is running ahead of his 2019 self. Based on these patterns, it looks like Beshear is on track to win.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


ABC News has a projection in Kentucky

ABC News projects that Republican incumbent Secretary of State Adams will win reelection in Kentucky. Adams faced challenger Democrat Wheatley, who wanted to add polling locations and expand voting, according to reporting from The Courier Journal.
—Monica Potts, 538


Earliest Kentucky results suggest slight Democratic improvement

To follow up on Geoffrey's latest Kentucky post, we now have 95 percent of the expected vote in from Pendleton County, and 93 percent from Rowan. Statewide, in counties reporting 90 percent of the expected vote or more — my preferred threshold to hit before I even look at the county data — Beshear is doing 2.5-3 percentage points better than he did last time. That would seem to suggest a narrow win — if, and that's a big if, it holds up statewide.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538


Abortion is on the ballot in Ohio

Happy off-year Election Day! Tonight, I’m watching the proposed constitutional amendment on Ohio’s statewide ballot, which would codify abortion rights in the state constitution. It’s not only a temperature check on how voters view abortion rights post-Dobbs, but also a data point in a red state where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is running for reelection in 2024.

A vote approving Issue 1 would, according to the language of the proposed amendment, enshrine the "right to make and carry out one's reproductive decisions, including but not limited to decisions on contraception, fertility treatment, continuing one's own pregnancy, miscarriage care, and abortion." Controversially, though, a GOP-led ballot board had final say on the wording that appeared on today’s ballots, making changes that could dampen support for the measure.

Advocates on each side of the ballot measure have accused the other side of being too extreme and out of step with Ohio voters. Proponents point to the six-week abortion ban without exceptions that Gov. Mike DeWine signed into law (and that’s currently on hold), while opponents say that the law would allow people to have abortions at any point in their pregnancy. In reality, the proposed amendment would specify that “abortion may be prohibited after fetal viability,” though not in cases where a physician determines that the abortion “is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.”

Next year, Brown is running for reelection in one of the key races that could decide the next Senate majority. And you can bet that strategists on both sides of the aisle will be assessing the effectiveness of their abortion messaging on this ballot as they prepare to deploy their resources in 2024.

—Leah Askarinam, 538