Virginia's been counting votes for almost an hour and a half, but some key races are still very far from a conclusion. Still, in Virginia's state Senate, it looks like GOP Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant is in trouble in the 16th District in the western Richmond suburbs. She's trailing Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg by about 3 points, but none of the more Democratic-leaning early vote has been reported yet. A Democratic victory there would probably put them at 20 seats, needing just one more in one of the other swing seats to capture an outright majority in the 40-seat chamber.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Speaking of which … ABC News can now project that Amo has won in Rhode Island’s 1st District. I’ll still be watching to see what the final margin is, though, since overperformance in special elections can often tell us which way the political winds are blowing.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

With 39 percent of the expected vote reporting, Democrat Gabe Amo leads Republican Gerry Leonard Jr. 63 percent to 37 percent in the special election for Rhode Island’s 1st District. This is wholly unsurprising, considering that the district voted for Biden by a similar margin of 64 percent to 35 percent. So far, Amo isn’t overperforming to quite the same degree as Democrats have in state-legislative special elections this year. But that shouldn’t stop him from becoming the first person of color to represent Rhode Island in Congress.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In Philadelphia, ABC News projects former Philadelphia City Council member Cherelle Parker will be the city's next mayor. She will become Philadelphia's first female mayor, defeating Republican David Oh.

— Leah Askarinam, 538

Elections in 2022 yielded very different political outcomes across different states. Just take a look at of voting patterns in last year’s Senate contests compared to the 2020 presidential race, and you’ll see that it looked like a blue wave in some states and a red wave in others. There weren’t even regional trends, let alone national trends! For example, Democrats overperformed in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky, while Republicans overperformed in Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin. That’s particularly striking given the relatively high degree of nationalization in American politics today.

There are a couple of explanations for those discordant results, and one obvious one was candidate quality. In places where Republicans , they lost, even while more mainstream Republican candidates were winning elsewhere on the ballot. Another likely factor is that state-level policy concerns were indeed influencing voters. For example, in places where a midterm vote served as a proxy for abortion rights — like Michigan, — Democrats tended to do better. In places where the issue appeared settled — like New York — Democrats did worse.

Tonight I’m curious if we’ll see a continuation of this trend. Beyond the issue of abortion, blue and red states are heading in different policy directions on everything from guns, to taxes, to LGBTQ issues. So will voters living in different policy worlds vote differently? Might voters in blue states react to perceived excesses in Democratic governance by swinging to the right, and vice versa? Or will national politics trump everything, leading to uniform swings? We shall see.

—Galen Druke, 538