In Kentucky, 60 percent of the expected vote has reported in the governor's race, and Beshear leads by 5 points over Cameron, 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent. But there's more good news for Beshear: He's mostly running ahead of his 2019 numbers in the counties where most of the vote has come in. At this point, 37 counties have reported at least 90 percent of their expected vote (out of 120 in the state), and across them Beshear is running 4.7 points ahead of his 2019 margin. Now, most of those counties are small — together, they made up about 23 percent of the statewide vote four years ago. But those counties also don't include the two biggest Democratic bases of support in Jefferson and Fayette counties (Louisville and Lexington).

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

As our colleague Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux has written, the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization Supreme Court decision last year has turned reproductive health and abortion rights into a liability for Republicans at the ballot box. After Republican-led states began restricting abortion rights in the wake of the decision, voters around the country have supported increasing abortion rights when it was directly on the ballot and helped Democrats over-perform in the 2022 midterms. Support for abortion has been rising. A win for the "yes" in Ohio tonight could mean abortion rights will stay on voters minds as we head into the 2024 election season.

—Monica Potts, 538

Democrats face test in Kentucky governor's race:

The clock has chimed for 8 p.m. Eastern, which means polls have closed in four more states voting today. In Mississippi, the main action is the state's governor race, although there are also down-ballot races for statewide and legislative office. In New Jersey, the state legislative elections are the main focus. In Pennsylvania, there's a contest for the state supreme court that could be important for how the court decides election law questions in the 2024 election (among other things). And in Rhode Island, there's the special election for the vacant 1st Congressional District left behind by former Democratic Rep. David Cicilline.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I think it’s fair to say that we’re in uncharted territory in the world of modern-day elections. There are two possible options that account for Democrats’ success tonight: One, the races that took place were so localized and dependent on individual candidates that it’s no reflection at all of the national political environment, since voters regularly differentiate between state and federal elections. The other possibility is that voters are disentangling the presidency from their political preferences writ large, and the Democratic Party hasn’t taken a hit even though its standard-bearer, President Joe Biden, has an average approval rating below 40 percent: “Tonight feels a lot like 2022, when Democrats won in spite of Biden, not because of him. In 2024, we'll see if Biden can win in spite of Biden.”

—Leah Askarinam, 538