Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.
Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.
As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
What are our takeaways from today's results?
The Mississippi governor's race is our last expected major projection of the evening! And with that, we'll close as usual by asking for folks' final thoughts on today's results. What are everyone's takeaways here from a relatively strong showing for Democrats?
—Tia Yang, 538
Reeves projected to win reelection in Mississippi's gubernatorial race
ABC News projects that Republican Gov. Tate Reeves will win reelection, defeating Democrat Brandon Presley. With some votes left to count, Reeves may end up winning by a smaller margin that he did in 2019, but it was enough to win. As a result, Mississippi's state government will remain fully in Republican hands.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Democrats pad their majority on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court
Per the AP, Democrat Dan McCaffery will defeat Republican Carolyn Carluccio in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race, winning around 53 percent to 47 percent of the vote. The outcome of this race won’t change party control of the seven-member court, but Democrats will pad their current 4-2 majority by filling a vacant seat.
McCaffery ended the evening with margins similar to the last top-of-ballot candidate in the state, Sen. John Fetterman, in most areas, but it looks like his slightly bigger margin of victory came from the eastern part of the state, including the pivotal Bucks County in the Philly suburbs. That county saw big turnout efforts from both sides this cycle, particularly with regard to controversial school board races, which Democrats also swept tonight.
—Tia Yang, 538
Democrats capture Virginia's legislature
Democrats have clinched both chambers of Virginia's General Assembly, perhaps nixing any lingering dreams that Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin had about using a strong GOP performance as a springboard to a late entry into the 2024 presidential race. But it does look like Democrats will have the thinnest of majorities. In the state Senate, Democrats have won 21 seats to the GOP's 18, with one extremely tight race looking more likely than not to also go for the Republicans. In the House of Delegates, Democrats have won 51 seats to the GOP's 46, but Republicans could sweep the three extremely close contests that have not yet been projected. This is all per Virginia Public Access Project's projections.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Final thought: Consider tonight’s results on their own terms, not 2024's
Tonight largely went down as I — and the polls — expected. Democrats won the Kentucky governorship but fell just short in Mississippi. Virginia was close, but Democrats eked out a win. Ohio’s two liberal ballot measures passed easily. Overall, Democrats should be quite happy with these results.
But I think a lot of Democrats will be tempted to say that these results bode well for them in 2024, and I just don’t buy that. I don’t think anyone expects Biden to perform as well as Beshear nationwide next year. Ohio’s election was a ballot measure, not a Democrat-versus-Republican race. And Virginia’s legislative elections have historically not been very predictive of the following year’s election. (Remember, in 2021, Republicans had a good off-year election, but Democrats ended up having a pretty decent midterm after the Dobbs decision came down and changed the national environment.)
So my recommendation is not to read too much into what these results mean for the future, but rather just to appreciate their importance in the present. The 2023 elections will have tons of policy implications, and that’s a big enough deal on their own without tying them to the presidential race! Democrats had a good Election Day today, no matter what happens in 2024.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538