Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.
Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.
As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
‘Yes’ seems to be leading in Ohio (so far)
ABC News does not yet have enough information to make a projection, but based on exit polling, “yes” is leading in both the abortion and marijuana ballot measures. And on both issues, the “yes” vote is the more liberal option: enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution and legalizing recreational marijuana.
— Leah Askarinam, 538
It’s looking good for Democrats in Kentucky
One of the largest counties in Kentucky is almost done reporting: Fayette County, home of Lexington. Beshear is doing quite well there, winning 72 percent to 28 percent. For comparison, Beshear won it 66 percent to 30 percent in 2019.
There are a lot of complete or near-complete counties like that where Beshear is running ahead of his 2019 self. Based on these patterns, it looks like Beshear is on track to win.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
ABC News has a projection in Kentucky
ABC News projects that Republican incumbent Secretary of State Adams will win reelection in Kentucky. Adams faced challenger Democrat Wheatley, who wanted to add polling locations and expand voting, according to reporting from The Courier Journal.
—Monica Potts, 538
Earliest Kentucky results suggest slight Democratic improvement
To follow up on Geoffrey's latest Kentucky post, we now have 95 percent of the expected vote in from Pendleton County, and 93 percent from Rowan. Statewide, in counties reporting 90 percent of the expected vote or more — my preferred threshold to hit before I even look at the county data — Beshear is doing 2.5-3 percentage points better than he did last time. That would seem to suggest a narrow win — if, and that's a big if, it holds up statewide.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
Final thought: Consider tonight’s results on their own terms, not 2024's
Tonight largely went down as I — and the polls — expected. Democrats won the Kentucky governorship but fell just short in Mississippi. Virginia was close, but Democrats eked out a win. Ohio’s two liberal ballot measures passed easily. Overall, Democrats should be quite happy with these results.
But I think a lot of Democrats will be tempted to say that these results bode well for them in 2024, and I just don’t buy that. I don’t think anyone expects Biden to perform as well as Beshear nationwide next year. Ohio’s election was a ballot measure, not a Democrat-versus-Republican race. And Virginia’s legislative elections have historically not been very predictive of the following year’s election. (Remember, in 2021, Republicans had a good off-year election, but Democrats ended up having a pretty decent midterm after the Dobbs decision came down and changed the national environment.)
So my recommendation is not to read too much into what these results mean for the future, but rather just to appreciate their importance in the present. The 2023 elections will have tons of policy implications, and that’s a big enough deal on their own without tying them to the presidential race! Democrats had a good Election Day today, no matter what happens in 2024.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538