ABC News projects that no candidate will receive 50 percent in the race for mayor in Houston, meaning the race will go to a runoff. Democratic state Sen. John Whitmire and Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee will face off on Dec. 9, in what’s technically a nonpartisan election for mayor. With 54 percent of the expected vote reported, Whitmire leads with 43 percent, followed by Jackson Lee with 37 percent.

— Leah Askarinam, 538

In Mississippi, Republicans look somewhat favored to hold onto the governorship. Reeves leads Presley by 11 points, 54.8 percent to 43.8 percent, with two-thirds of the expected vote reporting. However, much of heavily Democratic Hinds County has still not reported, so that margin will tighten. The question is, how much? Looking at the aggregate vote in the 14 counties where 90 percent or more of the expected vote has reported, Reeves is running about 1 point behind his 2019 victory margin. But considering he won by 5 points in 2019, that trend still points to a narrow victory. Critically, it may also be enough to clear 50 percent to avoid a runoff under Mississippi law, which requires the winning candidate to have a majority of the vote. Gwendolyn Gray, an independent, dropped out before the election and endorsed Presley, but she remained on the ballot. She currently has 1.4 percent of the vote, which could be enough to throw it to a runoff if Presley can really close the current gap.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Things are looking decent for New Jersey Democrats in the state Senate, where they look poised to oust at least one GOP lawmaker, Ed Durr (who currently trails his Democratic opponent by 8 points), and bring back all of their incumbents. The AP has called 15 races for Democrats so far (short of the 21 needed for a majority) but just 6 for Republicans. If each party wins the remaining seats in which they're leading, Democrats would actually see a net gain of 1 seat. In the state House, Democrats have successfully ousted at least one GOP incumbent, with Rabbi Avi Schnall edging past Ned Thomson in the 30th Legislative District, but the vast majority of the multi-member races are not yet called.

Ultimately, Republicans weren't able to capitalize on whatever momentum they had generated two years ago when GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli nearly pulled off a massive upset against Gov. Phil Murphy. The GOP looks like they're going to fall short of flipping either chamber of the legislature, a disappointing result for a state party that has struggled mightily over the last decade and was hoping for some good news.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

After flipping a mayoral seat in New Hampshire earlier tonight, conservatives scored another win in Wichita, Kansas. Like the Manchester, New Hampshire, mayoral race, the Wichita race is technically nonpartisan, though it clearly pitted a Democrat against a Republican. The Wichita Eagle has a great summary of the race, which Libertarian Lily Wu, previously a Republican, won. She defeated Mayor Brandon Whipple, a Democrat who ousted the Republican mayor in 2019. Notably, Wu had the backing of Americans for Prosperity, a conservative group founded by the Koch brothers.

—Leah Askarinam, 538

As Leah mentioned, ABC News now projects that Ohioans have voted to add protections for abortion to their state constitution. According to estimates from the New York Times, the abortion referendum in Ohio is on track for a +15 point "yes" margin. Compared to a partisan benchmark of Ohio — the 2020 election — that's a 23 point "swing" for Democrats, since they lost by 8 in 2020. Yes, I know, this is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's not the topline I'm interested in anyway. Rather, I'm looking at the results of ABC News's exit poll, which preliminarily shows that Trump only won the people who turned this year out by 3 points back in 2020. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest about 5 points of the Democrats' 23 point swing is due to a turnout advantage, then. The rest of it is due to residual overperformance of abortion as an issue.

The upshot here? Democrats are continuing a pattern of beating expectations in off-year elections, likely due to a concentration of highly engaged, educated voters in their coalition. We may be looking at a new era of off-year Democratic overperformance.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538