Virginia Democrats may be on the cusp of winning full control of the General Assembly, the state legislature. In the Senate, Democrats have won 19 seats, per projections made by the Associated Press, compared with 15 for the GOP. Of the remaining six seats in the 40-seat chamber, Democrats are ahead by about 6 points in the still-unprojected 31st District in the Northern Virginia suburbs, and are likely to win in the 22nd District in Virginia Beach, which has a clear Democratic lean. That would give them 21 seats and a majority. That may be all they get, though, as the 24th and 27th districts are both very close but may lean ever-so-slightly toward the GOP.

The House of Delegates has more races with a large number of votes outstanding, but the election night forecast built by analysts at CNalysis gives the Democrats better odds to win a slight majority of 51-to-52 seats in the 100-seat chamber. The GOP could still pull out a draw or a slight edge there, though, so we'll have to see.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

There was little to no suspense when it came to the Mississippi state House and Senate, as Democrats didn't even field candidates in a majority of races. But nevertheless, the AP has called both the state House and state Senate for Republicans. The only remaining question will be whether the GOP can pick up the seats they need to get a supermajority in the lower chamber.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

With around 60 percent of the expected vote reporting, results from the Pennsylvania state Supreme Court race show Democrat Dan McCaffery in the lead with around 56 percent of the vote. As expected given the high number of heavily Democratic mail-in votes counted early tonight, Carluccio has been steadily catching up to McCaffery’s early lead. Per the secretary of state, McCaffery has won nearly 80 percent of the mail-in votes, while Carluccio has won just under 60 percent of Election Day votes. That said, less than half the expected vote is reporting in Philadelphia and most of its suburbs, which will deliver a much higher percentage of Election Day votes for McCaffery.

There are also some promising signs for McCaffery in smaller counties with most of the expected vote reporting — for example, with over 95 percent of the vote reporting, he's leading by 18 points in Lackawanna county (home of Scranton), where Sen. John Fetterman won by 16 points in 2022.

—Tia Yang, 538

Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh, PA, has had a journey in the election for District Attorney this year — the Democratic incumbent, Steve Zappala, was eliminated in the primary by Matt Dugan, a progressive challenger endorsed by the Allegheny County Democratic Party. However, Zappala won the Republican primary as a write-in, and the general election is a rematch of the Democratic primary, with a much different electorate. While Dugan led the early vote by 21 percentage points, that was the worst performance of any Democrat countywide, and Zappala is leading Election Day votes by 12 percentage points. With 70 percent of expected Election Day vote reported, the race stands at less than 1000 vote margin.

A similar dynamic is playing out in the hotly contested race for the County Executive. Progressive Democrat Sara Innamorato led the early vote by 35 percentage points, but moderate Republican Joe Rockey is leading the Election Day vote by 11 percentage points. However, given the stronger early vote performance, Innamorato looks to be in a more comfortable lead, and the AP has called the race for Innamorato.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

As Leah mentioned, ABC News now projects that Ohioans have voted to add protections for abortion to their state constitution. According to estimates from the New York Times, the abortion referendum in Ohio is on track for a +15 point "yes" margin. Compared to a partisan benchmark of Ohio — the 2020 election — that's a 23 point "swing" for Democrats, since they lost by 8 in 2020. Yes, I know, this is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's not the topline I'm interested in anyway. Rather, I'm looking at the results of ABC News's exit poll, which preliminarily shows that Trump only won the people who turned this year out by 3 points back in 2020. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest about 5 points of the Democrats' 23 point swing is due to a turnout advantage, then. The rest of it is due to residual overperformance of abortion as an issue.

The upshot here? Democrats are continuing a pattern of beating expectations in off-year elections, likely due to a concentration of highly engaged, educated voters in their coalition. We may be looking at a new era of off-year Democratic overperformance.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538