Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.
Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.
As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
‘Yes’ seems to be leading in Ohio (so far)
ABC News does not yet have enough information to make a projection, but based on exit polling, “yes” is leading in both the abortion and marijuana ballot measures. And on both issues, the “yes” vote is the more liberal option: enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution and legalizing recreational marijuana.
— Leah Askarinam, 538
It’s looking good for Democrats in Kentucky
One of the largest counties in Kentucky is almost done reporting: Fayette County, home of Lexington. Beshear is doing quite well there, winning 72 percent to 28 percent. For comparison, Beshear won it 66 percent to 30 percent in 2019.
There are a lot of complete or near-complete counties like that where Beshear is running ahead of his 2019 self. Based on these patterns, it looks like Beshear is on track to win.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
ABC News has a projection in Kentucky
ABC News projects that Republican incumbent Secretary of State Adams will win reelection in Kentucky. Adams faced challenger Democrat Wheatley, who wanted to add polling locations and expand voting, according to reporting from The Courier Journal.
—Monica Potts, 538
Earliest Kentucky results suggest slight Democratic improvement
To follow up on Geoffrey's latest Kentucky post, we now have 95 percent of the expected vote in from Pendleton County, and 93 percent from Rowan. Statewide, in counties reporting 90 percent of the expected vote or more — my preferred threshold to hit before I even look at the county data — Beshear is doing 2.5-3 percentage points better than he did last time. That would seem to suggest a narrow win — if, and that's a big if, it holds up statewide.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
In Ohio, a turnout advantage for Democrats
As Leah mentioned, ABC News now projects that Ohioans have voted to add protections for abortion to their state constitution. According to estimates from the New York Times, the abortion referendum in Ohio is on track for a +15 point "yes" margin. Compared to a partisan benchmark of Ohio — the 2020 election — that's a 23 point "swing" for Democrats, since they lost by 8 in 2020. Yes, I know, this is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's not the topline I'm interested in anyway. Rather, I'm looking at the results of ABC News's exit poll, which preliminarily shows that Trump only won the people who turned this year out by 3 points back in 2020. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest about 5 points of the Democrats' 23 point swing is due to a turnout advantage, then. The rest of it is due to residual overperformance of abortion as an issue.
The upshot here? Democrats are continuing a pattern of beating expectations in off-year elections, likely due to a concentration of highly engaged, educated voters in their coalition. We may be looking at a new era of off-year Democratic overperformance.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538