Another county that looks close to fully reporting in Kentucky is Elliott. Beshear is winning it 53 percent to 47 percent, which is worse for him than in 2019, when he carried it 59 percent to 39 percent. Elliott County is in the middle of coal country, which used to be staunchly Democratic but has realigned harder than perhaps any other part of the country. Famously, Elliott County voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 1872 (!) to 2012, but then Trump carried it in 2016 and 2020 as part of his gains with working-class whites.

So it’s not too surprising that Beshear is doing worse there than he did four years ago. The only question is, will it doom his reelection chances?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Galen mentioned that state-level concerns can sometimes trump national politics when it comes to state races, and Kentucky could be a good example of that. Democratic incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear is running for re-election in the deep-red commonwealth. Would a win for him there mean anything for 2024? It's hard to say. Beshear is an unusual case, the popular governor who also happens to be the son of a popular former governor. His Republican opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, has been working to nationalize the race and tie Beshear to President Joe Biden and Biden's low approval ratings, but reporting from our ABCNews colleague, Tal Axelrod, shows that the commonwealth's voters don't necessarily buy that. Beshear's job helping rural areas recover from tornadoes and floods could boost his performance in Republican areas. Cameron, on the other hand, is known in the state for deciding not to prosecute the police officers who shot Breonna Taylor in her apartment. That may play a role in how voters cast a ballot in her home city of Louisville. These local issues could matter more to voters tonight than what's going on in D.C.
—Monica Potts, 538

Virginia's polls have closed, and we should start getting some vote totals from there shortly. However, be careful interpreting the numbers in key races as the night wears on. There may be some districts where there is an early red mirage because mostly Election Day votes are reported first, whereas more heavily Democratic mail-in and in-person early votes will be reported second. But this won't be true in every locality, so we'll be keeping an eye out for important differences in districts as we report what's happening.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

We now have 16 percent of the expected vote in from Kentucky's gubernatorial race, and a couple counties have reported about 90 percent or more of what we expect to see from them. In south-central Kentucky, deep red Taylor County has 94 percent of its expected vote, and Cameron leads Beshear by 18 points there. However, Beshear lost that county by 24 points in his narrow 2019 win, so that would be a notable improvement for him. Meanwhile, in eastern Kentucky, Menifee County has 89 percent of its expected vote and Cameron leads by 8 points. But in contrast, this is a place Beshear lost by 7 points in 2019, so this would mark a slight GOP improvement.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

As Leah mentioned, ABC News now projects that Ohioans have voted to add protections for abortion to their state constitution. According to estimates from the New York Times, the abortion referendum in Ohio is on track for a +15 point "yes" margin. Compared to a partisan benchmark of Ohio — the 2020 election — that's a 23 point "swing" for Democrats, since they lost by 8 in 2020. Yes, I know, this is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's not the topline I'm interested in anyway. Rather, I'm looking at the results of ABC News's exit poll, which preliminarily shows that Trump only won the people who turned this year out by 3 points back in 2020. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest about 5 points of the Democrats' 23 point swing is due to a turnout advantage, then. The rest of it is due to residual overperformance of abortion as an issue.

The upshot here? Democrats are continuing a pattern of beating expectations in off-year elections, likely due to a concentration of highly engaged, educated voters in their coalition. We may be looking at a new era of off-year Democratic overperformance.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538