Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia

Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.

Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.

As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

More chaos in the Bridgeport mayor’s race

For much of the night, Democrat-turned-independent John Gomes was leading incumbent Democrat Joe Ganim in the race for mayor of Bridgeport, Connecticut. But according to Christopher Keating of the Hartford Courant, late-counted absentee ballots put Ganim in the lead by just 173 votes, and Gomes is conceding the election. That’s probably not going to go over well considering what happened in the primary, which Ganim narrowly won amid allegations of absentee-voter fraud. In fact, a judge ordered a redo of the Democratic primary between Ganim and Gomes after video surfaced of a city employee dropping absentee ballots in a dropbox, in apparent violation of Connecticut’s ban on ballot harvesting. As a result, Ganim’s win could be moot — unless he wins the redone Democratic primary, in which case this general-election result would stand.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Reeves looks probable to win in Mississippi, albeit narrowly

With 83 percent of the expected vote reporting, Reeves leads Presley 52.6 percent to 46.0 percent in Mississippi's gubernatorial race. The margin will get closer, as only about 60 percent of the votes in heavily Democratic Hinds County have been tallied. Yet the trends in the race favor Reeves slightly: In the counties where 90 percent or more of the expected vote has reported (45 of the state's 90), Reeves is performing about 1 point worse in margin than he did in his 5-point victory in 2019. But he's still running ahead of where he needs to be to win tonight, so barring some very unfavorable results for him in the yet-to-be-counted ballots, Reeves will win, Reeves will win.

Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Republicans win the Suffolk County executive race

In 2021 and 2022, Republicans made serious inroads on Long Island, New York, winning the Nassau County executive race and putting up strong margins in the gubernatorial race. Tonight, according to the AP, they went a step further and won the Suffolk County executive race. Republican Edward Romaine defeated Democrat David Calone to win this open seat for the GOP for the first time in 20 years.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Texas voters reject the gerontocracy

It flew under the radar, but today Texas voters weighed in on Proposition 13, which would have raised the mandatory retirement age for state judges from 75 to 79 — effectively allowing for older elected officials. Voters rejected the proposal, 62 percent to 38 percent. It was a strong statement against the so-called “gerontocracy” at a time when there is widespread concern about the age of major politicians, like Biden, Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Republicans aim to win all three Southern governorships up in 2023

Three Southern states hold gubernatorial elections the year before a presidential election: Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. But despite the strong Republican lean of these states, Democrats held the governorships of Kentucky and Louisiana coming into this election. The GOP began the year with a real shot of winning all three, and entering today, they’re already one step of the way there: On Oct. 14, Republican state Attorney General Jeff Landry won Louisiana’s governorship outright, avoiding a November runoff. This was an open-seat pickup for Republicans since Democratic incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards was term-limited. Now, all eyes are on Kentucky and Mississippi, where each incumbent governor is slightly favored to win reelection in a competitive contest, based on limited polling and race ratings from Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report.

In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear faces Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Beshear won in 2019 by less than 1 percentage point against an unpopular GOP governor, but has maintained a high approval rating despite his party identification. He’s painted Cameron as an extreme Republican because of Cameron’s support for Kentucky’s near-total ban on abortion. That message might work: Although Kentucky is conservative, voters last year rejected a constitutional amendment that would have formally stated there is no right to abortion under the state constitution. In his campaign, Cameron has tried to tie Beshear to the unpopular Biden while criticizing the incumbent for his vetoes (later overridden) of anti-transgender legislation. We have very little polling here, but in mid-October competing partisan polls from Hart Research and from co/efficient each found Beshear ahead by differing margins. However, a poll from Emerson College released on Friday showed the two candidates running just about even.

On the flipside, Mississippi is more likely to remain in Republican hands. Republican Gov. Tate Reeves faces Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, one of just two Democrats in Mississippi’s executive branch (and, yes, a second cousin of Elvis). Reeves has played to the GOP base by highlighting his opposition to transgender women playing women’s sports, while Presley has tried to ding Reeves by connecting him to an ongoing scandal involving the misuse of federal welfare funds by the Mississippi Department of Human Services. We have even less polling to go on here than in Kentucky, however. A late October Public Policy Polling survey on behalf of the Democratic Governors Association gave Reeves only a tiny edge, but that’s maybe the rosiest picture for Presley. The next most recent poll from the Mason-Dixon/Magnolia Tribune put Reeves up 8 points.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538