Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.
Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.
As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Ohio votes to enshrine abortion rights in state constitution
Ohio is projected to vote “yes” on Issue 1, a proposed constitutional amendment that enshrines abortion rights in the state constitution. The courts had previously blocked Gov. Mike DeWine’s six-week abortion ban, and the new constitutional amendment protects the right to abortion through fetal viability, around 24 weeks of pregnancy.
—Leah Askarinam, 538
In Ohio, a turnout advantage for Democrats
As Leah mentioned, ABC News now projects that Ohioans have voted to add protections for abortion to their state constitution. According to estimates from the New York Times, the abortion referendum in Ohio is on track for a +15 point "yes" margin. Compared to a partisan benchmark of Ohio — the 2020 election — that's a 23 point "swing" for Democrats, since they lost by 8 in 2020. Yes, I know, this is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's not the topline I'm interested in anyway. Rather, I'm looking at the results of ABC News's exit poll, which preliminarily shows that Trump only won the people who turned this year out by 3 points back in 2020. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest about 5 points of the Democrats' 23 point swing is due to a turnout advantage, then. The rest of it is due to residual overperformance of abortion as an issue.
The upshot here? Democrats are continuing a pattern of beating expectations in off-year elections, likely due to a concentration of highly engaged, educated voters in their coalition. We may be looking at a new era of off-year Democratic overperformance.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
More New Jersey votes coming in
One race I'm watching in New Jersey is in the 3rd Legislative District, where Republican state Sen. Ed Durr is running for re-election two years after he pulled off the upset of the year by defeating powerful state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Durr, a former truck driver, spent barely any money that year and his win rocked the balance of political power in the state. This year, he's facing a spirited challenge from former state Assemblyman John Burzichelli. With a little more than half the expected votes counted, per the New York Times, Burzichelli leads Durr, 62 to 38 percent.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Beshear projected to win reelection in Kentucky
ABC News projects that Beshear will win re-election as governor of Kentucky. In national elections Kentucky has been reliably Republican, and Trump won the state by nearly 26 points in 2020. But Beshear has been popular with the state's voters and way ahead in fundraising. The vote stands at 53 to 47 percent, with 83 percent of the expected vote in. Kentucky is a unique case, but this could give Democrats, worried about Biden's favorability numbers, an emotional boost ahead of the presidential campaign season.
—Monica Potts, 538
Results continue to trickle in from New Jersey
Things are looking decent for New Jersey Democrats in the state Senate, where they look poised to oust at least one GOP lawmaker, Ed Durr (who currently trails his Democratic opponent by 8 points), and bring back all of their incumbents. The AP has called 15 races for Democrats so far (short of the 21 needed for a majority) but just 6 for Republicans. If each party wins the remaining seats in which they're leading, Democrats would actually see a net gain of 1 seat. In the state House, Democrats have successfully ousted at least one GOP incumbent, with Rabbi Avi Schnall edging past Ned Thomson in the 30th Legislative District, but the vast majority of the multi-member races are not yet called.
Ultimately, Republicans weren't able to capitalize on whatever momentum they had generated two years ago when GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli nearly pulled off a massive upset against Gov. Phil Murphy. The GOP looks like they're going to fall short of flipping either chamber of the legislature, a disappointing result for a state party that has struggled mightily over the last decade and was hoping for some good news.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections