Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.
Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.
As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Republicans gaining in coal country?
Another county that looks close to fully reporting in Kentucky is Elliott. Beshear is winning it 53 percent to 47 percent, which is worse for him than in 2019, when he carried it 59 percent to 39 percent. Elliott County is in the middle of coal country, which used to be staunchly Democratic but has realigned harder than perhaps any other part of the country. Famously, Elliott County voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 1872 (!) to 2012, but then Trump carried it in 2016 and 2020 as part of his gains with working-class whites.
So it’s not too surprising that Beshear is doing worse there than he did four years ago. The only question is, will it doom his reelection chances?
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Would a Democratic win in Kentucky mean anything for 2024?
Galen mentioned that state-level concerns can sometimes trump national politics when it comes to state races, and Kentucky could be a good example of that. Democratic incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear is running for re-election in the deep-red commonwealth. Would a win for him there mean anything for 2024? It's hard to say. Beshear is an unusual case, the popular governor who also happens to be the son of a popular former governor. His Republican opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, has been working to nationalize the race and tie Beshear to President Joe Biden and Biden's low approval ratings, but reporting from our ABCNews colleague, Tal Axelrod, shows that the commonwealth's voters don't necessarily buy that. Beshear's job helping rural areas recover from tornadoes and floods could boost his performance in Republican areas. Cameron, on the other hand, is known in the state for deciding not to prosecute the police officers who shot Breonna Taylor in her apartment. That may play a role in how voters cast a ballot in her home city of Louisville. These local issues could matter more to voters tonight than what's going on in D.C.
—Monica Potts, 538
Trends in Virginia's vote will vary, so watch out
Virginia's polls have closed, and we should start getting some vote totals from there shortly. However, be careful interpreting the numbers in key races as the night wears on. There may be some districts where there is an early red mirage because mostly Election Day votes are reported first, whereas more heavily Democratic mail-in and in-person early votes will be reported second. But this won't be true in every locality, so we'll be keeping an eye out for important differences in districts as we report what's happening.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Limited takeaways from early Kentucky returns
We now have 16 percent of the expected vote in from Kentucky's gubernatorial race, and a couple counties have reported about 90 percent or more of what we expect to see from them. In south-central Kentucky, deep red Taylor County has 94 percent of its expected vote, and Cameron leads Beshear by 18 points there. However, Beshear lost that county by 24 points in his narrow 2019 win, so that would be a notable improvement for him. Meanwhile, in eastern Kentucky, Menifee County has 89 percent of its expected vote and Cameron leads by 8 points. But in contrast, this is a place Beshear lost by 7 points in 2019, so this would mark a slight GOP improvement.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Results continue to trickle in from New Jersey
Things are looking decent for New Jersey Democrats in the state Senate, where they look poised to oust at least one GOP lawmaker, Ed Durr (who currently trails his Democratic opponent by 8 points), and bring back all of their incumbents. The AP has called 15 races for Democrats so far (short of the 21 needed for a majority) but just 6 for Republicans. If each party wins the remaining seats in which they're leading, Democrats would actually see a net gain of 1 seat. In the state House, Democrats have successfully ousted at least one GOP incumbent, with Rabbi Avi Schnall edging past Ned Thomson in the 30th Legislative District, but the vast majority of the multi-member races are not yet called.
Ultimately, Republicans weren't able to capitalize on whatever momentum they had generated two years ago when GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli nearly pulled off a massive upset against Gov. Phil Murphy. The GOP looks like they're going to fall short of flipping either chamber of the legislature, a disappointing result for a state party that has struggled mightily over the last decade and was hoping for some good news.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections