Another county that looks close to fully reporting in Kentucky is Elliott. Beshear is winning it 53 percent to 47 percent, which is worse for him than in 2019, when he carried it 59 percent to 39 percent. Elliott County is in the middle of coal country, which used to be staunchly Democratic but has realigned harder than perhaps any other part of the country. Famously, Elliott County voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election from 1872 (!) to 2012, but then Trump carried it in 2016 and 2020 as part of his gains with working-class whites.

So it’s not too surprising that Beshear is doing worse there than he did four years ago. The only question is, will it doom his reelection chances?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Galen mentioned that state-level concerns can sometimes trump national politics when it comes to state races, and Kentucky could be a good example of that. Democratic incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear is running for re-election in the deep-red commonwealth. Would a win for him there mean anything for 2024? It's hard to say. Beshear is an unusual case, the popular governor who also happens to be the son of a popular former governor. His Republican opponent, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, has been working to nationalize the race and tie Beshear to President Joe Biden and Biden's low approval ratings, but reporting from our ABCNews colleague, Tal Axelrod, shows that the commonwealth's voters don't necessarily buy that. Beshear's job helping rural areas recover from tornadoes and floods could boost his performance in Republican areas. Cameron, on the other hand, is known in the state for deciding not to prosecute the police officers who shot Breonna Taylor in her apartment. That may play a role in how voters cast a ballot in her home city of Louisville. These local issues could matter more to voters tonight than what's going on in D.C.
—Monica Potts, 538

Virginia's polls have closed, and we should start getting some vote totals from there shortly. However, be careful interpreting the numbers in key races as the night wears on. There may be some districts where there is an early red mirage because mostly Election Day votes are reported first, whereas more heavily Democratic mail-in and in-person early votes will be reported second. But this won't be true in every locality, so we'll be keeping an eye out for important differences in districts as we report what's happening.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

We now have 16 percent of the expected vote in from Kentucky's gubernatorial race, and a couple counties have reported about 90 percent or more of what we expect to see from them. In south-central Kentucky, deep red Taylor County has 94 percent of its expected vote, and Cameron leads Beshear by 18 points there. However, Beshear lost that county by 24 points in his narrow 2019 win, so that would be a notable improvement for him. Meanwhile, in eastern Kentucky, Menifee County has 89 percent of its expected vote and Cameron leads by 8 points. But in contrast, this is a place Beshear lost by 7 points in 2019, so this would mark a slight GOP improvement.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Pennsylvania has a slew of state and local races to keep an eye on this evening, headlined by a multimillion-dollar state Supreme Court contest between Republican Carolyn Carluccio, president judge of the Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas, and Democrat Daniel McCaffery, a Superior Court judge.

The outcome here won’t change party control of the seven-member court, where Democrats have held a 4-2 majority (with one vacancy) since the death of Democratic Chief Justice Max Baer in October 2022. Rather, Democrats are looking to shore up their majority amid continued legal battles over voting access in the battleground state, and ahead of the next judicial elections in 2025, when three of their four existing seats will be up for retention.

There isn’t much polling on this race, but a September survey by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank, showed McCaffery in the lead 42 percent to 36 percent. However, a mid-October survey by Franklin & Marshall College found that, for each candidate, over 70 percent of registered voters weren’t familiar enough to have an opinion of them. Voters, then, are more likely to be influenced in this race by partisan preference and issue-related messaging — of which there’s been plenty.

As we’ve seen repeatedly in the post-Dobbs era, Pennsylvania Democrats have made abortion central to their turnout efforts and attacks against Carluccio. But tonight’s outcome will likely have more immediate ramifications on another key issue: voting access. Pennsylvania’s Act 77, a bipartisan measure that widely expanded access to mail-in voting in 2019, has been repeatedly challenged by Republicans in the wake of Trump’s baseless claims of voting fraud in the 2020 election. The state Supreme Court deadlocked 3-3 on one such challenge right before the 2022 election and is likely to hear additional challenges heading into, and perhaps in relation to, the 2024 election.

—Tia Yang, 538