Election 2023 results and analysis: Democrats excel in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is projected to win reelection in Mississippi.
Nov. 7, 2023, was Election Day in at least 37 states, and Americans cast their votes on everything from governorships to local referenda. When the dust settled, it was a solid night for Democrats and their allies: According to ABC News projections, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky, and Ohio voters passed Issue 1 to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. The AP also projected that Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia legislature and an open seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. However, there were a few bright spots for Republicans: ABC News projected that Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves beat back a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley.
As results came in, 538 analysts were breaking them down in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Ohio votes to enshrine abortion rights in state constitution
Ohio is projected to vote “yes” on Issue 1, a proposed constitutional amendment that enshrines abortion rights in the state constitution. The courts had previously blocked Gov. Mike DeWine’s six-week abortion ban, and the new constitutional amendment protects the right to abortion through fetal viability, around 24 weeks of pregnancy.
—Leah Askarinam, 538
In Ohio, a turnout advantage for Democrats
As Leah mentioned, ABC News now projects that Ohioans have voted to add protections for abortion to their state constitution. According to estimates from the New York Times, the abortion referendum in Ohio is on track for a +15 point "yes" margin. Compared to a partisan benchmark of Ohio — the 2020 election — that's a 23 point "swing" for Democrats, since they lost by 8 in 2020. Yes, I know, this is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's not the topline I'm interested in anyway. Rather, I'm looking at the results of ABC News's exit poll, which preliminarily shows that Trump only won the people who turned this year out by 3 points back in 2020. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest about 5 points of the Democrats' 23 point swing is due to a turnout advantage, then. The rest of it is due to residual overperformance of abortion as an issue.
The upshot here? Democrats are continuing a pattern of beating expectations in off-year elections, likely due to a concentration of highly engaged, educated voters in their coalition. We may be looking at a new era of off-year Democratic overperformance.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538
More New Jersey votes coming in
One race I'm watching in New Jersey is in the 3rd Legislative District, where Republican state Sen. Ed Durr is running for re-election two years after he pulled off the upset of the year by defeating powerful state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Durr, a former truck driver, spent barely any money that year and his win rocked the balance of political power in the state. This year, he's facing a spirited challenge from former state Assemblyman John Burzichelli. With a little more than half the expected votes counted, per the New York Times, Burzichelli leads Durr, 62 to 38 percent.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Beshear projected to win reelection in Kentucky
ABC News projects that Beshear will win re-election as governor of Kentucky. In national elections Kentucky has been reliably Republican, and Trump won the state by nearly 26 points in 2020. But Beshear has been popular with the state's voters and way ahead in fundraising. The vote stands at 53 to 47 percent, with 83 percent of the expected vote in. Kentucky is a unique case, but this could give Democrats, worried about Biden's favorability numbers, an emotional boost ahead of the presidential campaign season.
—Monica Potts, 538
What I’m watching in the New Jersey and Mississippi state legislature contests
Tonight I’ll be watching the fight for the New Jersey state legislature, as well as the elections for the Mississippi state House and Senate. In Trenton, Republicans would need to flip 6 seats to take control of the state Senate, and 7 seats to flip the state House. Republicans haven’t held a majority in either chamber in over two decades, but after a closer-than-anticipated 2021 gubernatorial election and a net gain of seven seats in the 2021 legislative elections, some in the party are hopeful that they can continue clawing back some of the ground they’ve lost over the last decade. This is the first cycle under new lines following the 2020 census, and redistricting has pushed a number of lawmakers to the exits — nine state senators and 22 state representatives lost renomination or opted not to run for reelection.
As little suspense as there is in New Jersey, where Democrats are expected to hold onto their majorities, there’s even less in Mississippi, where Republicans have already virutally locked in majorities in both chambers because Democrats failed to field candidates in a majority of races. The real drama will be whether the GOP can pick up five seats (including one vacant seat previously held by the GOP) to secure a supermajority in the state House. That could come in handy if Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley scores an upset in the gubernatorial race over incumbent Gov. Tate Reeves.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections