Here's something to do while waiting on those results ...

When it comes to winning elections, is it really, "the economy, stupid?" Are "soccer moms" the quintessential swing voter? And does it matter which candidate you'd rather share a beer with? Every election cycle, cliches come easy. But are they right?

That's what we try to get to the bottom of in our new mini-series on the 538 Politics podcast, "Campaign Throwback." In the first installment we interrogate the role that the economy plays in electoral outcomes, in the second we ask how suburban women came to be viewed as swing voters and whether that is the case today. In our final installment, which will come out tomorrow morning, we look at the "beer question." Starting in the 2000s, pollsters and pundits began speculating that voters are drawn to the candidate they'd rather have a beer with. We go back and look at the data to try to determine if that's actually how Americans choose their presidents.

So while you wait for that last set of polls to close, take some time to catch up on the latest "Campaign Throwback" episodes in the podcast feed, and tune back in tomorrow morning for our final installment!

—Galen Druke, 538

Perhaps the most interesting elections today in Idaho — where the first polls have just closed — are for the obscure position of precinct committeeman for the local GOP. As Monica has written, many state Republican parties are at war with themselves, and that’s the case in Idaho as well: Two traditionalist GOP groups, North Idaho Republicans and Gem State Conservatives, are trying to win as many precinct committeemen posts as possible in order to wrest control away from the party’s right wing, some of whom have ties to white nationalists.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Scott has won his primary against 6 challengers, according to The Associated Press. He is likely to win reelection in this safe blue seat outside of Atlanta in November.

—Monica Potts, 538

It’s 10 p.m. Eastern, which means that polls are now closed in most of Idaho (the southern, most populous part) as well as in a sliver of eastern Oregon (however, the vast vast majority of Oregon won’t be done voting until 11 p.m. Eastern).

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Right on cue, Jacob: Oregon’s most competitive House race this fall will likely be in the 5th District, where Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is defending a seat that Biden would’ve carried by 9 percentage points. That potential prize has precipitated a highly competitive Democratic primary between state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. Bynum has led the way in fundraising, bringing in $1.1 million to McLeod-Skinner’s $726,000. But McLeod-Skinner may be better known, having defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the 2022 Democratic primary before losing to Chavez-DeRemer by 2 points in the general election later that year.

Perhaps with this loss in mind, many Democratic officials — including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — are backing Bynum over McLeod-Skinner as the better bet to defeat Chavez-DeRemer this fall. The DCCC has even taken the unusual step of running “hybrid ads” with Bynum that both promote her candidacy and Democrats more broadly, allowing both to save money by splitting advertising costs. Outside groups have also come in big for Bynum by spending around $1.2 million either backing her or opposing McLeod-Skinner, according to OpenSecrets — including $759,000 in ad spending from Mainstream Democrats PAC criticizing McLeod-Skinner over reports that she behaved poorly toward her campaign staff in 2022. Additionally, EMILYs List has endorsed Bynum, a change from 2022 when it endorsed McLeod-Skinner (albeit after that year’s primary).

McLeod-Skinner has countered by running ads highlighting Bynum’s 2019 vote to oppose expanding the statute of limitations for rape survivors to file civil suits in sexual assault cases. Bynum defended the vote at the time, saying “it’s not popular to protect the accused, but it is our job.” Additionally, an outside group called Health Equity Now has spent about $350,000 on ads promoting McLeod-Skinner as a progressive. However, the group appears to have Republican ties, so it may be a case of GOP meddling to boost a potentially weaker general election candidate. Regardless, the race certainly looks close: The only polling that we’ve seen of the primary this year is a late April survey by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies on behalf of Bynum’s campaign that found her a hair ahead of McLeod-Skinner, 37 percent to 34 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538