Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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The lesson out of Oregon

Based on the blowouts in Oregon’s 3rd and 5th District Democratic primaries, is the lesson here just “big spending works”?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


More results in Oregon's 4th District

With 55 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for Oregon's 4th District, DeSpain's lead has increased over former Keizer city councilmember, Amy Ryan Courser. It now stands at 58 percent to 41 percent, respectively.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Progressive Portland DA badly trailing his more conservative challenger

In the Multnomah County District Attorney race, incumbent Mike Schmidt is trailing challenger Nathan Vasquez, 42 percent to 58 percent, with about half the expected votes reporting, according to the New York Times. Multnomah County is the most populous county in Oregon, and includes the city of Portland.

In an April survey, Portland area residents told DHM Research/The Oregonian that the two biggest concerns in their area were homelessness (53 percent) and crime (20 percent), two issues where the DA might make a difference. Respondents were particularly supportive of cracking down on homeless encampments: 63 percent said that "local governments should be allowed to ban people from camping in public spaces and fine or arrest anyone who refuses to leave," while just 27 percent disagreed.

Vasquez has blamed Schmidt and his policies for the rise in homelessness, drug use and crime in the area. And it looks like that approach may be working for him. He's off to a solid lead, and as this is a nonpartisan election, whoever wins tonight will take over the office.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Some statewide race projections from the Beaver State

Further down the ballot, Oregon voters also selected their party nominees for secretary of state and attorney general. Just a few minutes after polls closed (shoutout vote-by-mail!), ABC News reported that state Treasurer Tobias Read is projected to win the Democratic primary for secretary of state, the state's second-highest office. Read, who currently leads with 71 percent of the vote, had the establishment support and fundraising lead over state Sen. James Manning, who is in second place with 20 percent.

In April, Bolts Magazine wrote about this race as a test for different views on democracy and voting rights: Manning campaigned on a more progressive vision, including allowing incarcerated people to vote, while Read said he would prioritize fine-tuning the state's existing systems, including universal mail voting.

Oregon tends to elect Democrats statewide, so Read is probably the favorite to win in November over state Sen. Dennis Linthicum, the far-right Republican nominee who campaigned on ending vote-by-mail and was barred from running for reelection in the state Senate after he and other Republican lawmakers participated in a six-week quorum-denying protest over issues abortion, gun control and transgender health care.

ABC News also reports that state Rep. Dan Rayfield, who was state House Speaker for two years, is projected to be the Democratic nominee for attorney general. He'll face former prosecutor Will Lathrop in November in a race to succeed outgoing Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum, who is stepping down after 12 years in office.

—Irena Li, 538


A close race for the Democratic nomination in Oregon’s 5th District

Right on cue, Jacob: Oregon’s most competitive House race this fall will likely be in the 5th District, where Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is defending a seat that Biden would’ve carried by 9 percentage points. That potential prize has precipitated a highly competitive Democratic primary between state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. Bynum has led the way in fundraising, bringing in $1.1 million to McLeod-Skinner’s $726,000. But McLeod-Skinner may be better known, having defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the 2022 Democratic primary before losing to Chavez-DeRemer by 2 points in the general election later that year.

Perhaps with this loss in mind, many Democratic officials — including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — are backing Bynum over McLeod-Skinner as the better bet to defeat Chavez-DeRemer this fall. The DCCC has even taken the unusual step of running “hybrid ads” with Bynum that both promote her candidacy and Democrats more broadly, allowing both to save money by splitting advertising costs. Outside groups have also come in big for Bynum by spending around $1.2 million either backing her or opposing McLeod-Skinner, according to OpenSecrets — including $759,000 in ad spending from Mainstream Democrats PAC criticizing McLeod-Skinner over reports that she behaved poorly toward her campaign staff in 2022. Additionally, EMILYs List has endorsed Bynum, a change from 2022 when it endorsed McLeod-Skinner (albeit after that year’s primary).

McLeod-Skinner has countered by running ads highlighting Bynum’s 2019 vote to oppose expanding the statute of limitations for rape survivors to file civil suits in sexual assault cases. Bynum defended the vote at the time, saying “it’s not popular to protect the accused, but it is our job.” Additionally, an outside group called Health Equity Now has spent about $350,000 on ads promoting McLeod-Skinner as a progressive. However, the group appears to have Republican ties, so it may be a case of GOP meddling to boost a potentially weaker general election candidate. Regardless, the race certainly looks close: The only polling that we’ve seen of the primary this year is a late April survey by Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies on behalf of Bynum’s campaign that found her a hair ahead of McLeod-Skinner, 37 percent to 34 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538