Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Answer: Abortion wasn’t really on the ballot, despite Barrow’s attempts to make it so

Since control of the Georgia Supreme Court wasn’t up for grabs, it’s hard to see one seat’s election as a real referendum on abortion. Add in the fact that Barrow’s attacks on Pinson kind of fell flat — yes, Pinson previously defended the state’s abortion ban, but as solicitor general, it was his job to defend the law against a legal challenge — and it just wasn’t enough to galvanize voters.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Answer: Incumbency advantage

The incumbency advantage probably played a role here. And awareness about this race was probably low, even as Barrow tried to elevate it and tie it to a consequential issue, like abortion. I agree with Cooper that perhaps the stakes weren't high enough.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Answer: Abortion is a little different in Georgia

In addition to what Geoffrey and Cooper said, I’d also echo what Mary said about abortion polling in the state in an earlier post. Abortion is just a little less important to Georgia voters than it is nationally. That said, none of this means abortion won’t matter to voters in November. And as we’ve seen time and time again, the issue tends to give Democrats an edge.

—Monica Potts, 538


Answer: Part of the issue may simply be money

According to AdImpact, a lot less money was spent in support of Barrow than of Pinson.

But I'm actually struck by how little money was spent in this race at all! Just over 3 million dollars was spent in 2024 in support of either candidate, which is far less than we usually see for a high profile, competitive statewide election. This may have just flown under voters' radar in general, and having Pinson marked as the incumbent on the ballot may have also been enough to put him over the top.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Candidates of color to watch

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 31 people of color are running in these contests — 27 Democrats and four Republicans.

The most high-profile primaries involving these candidates are arguably in Oregon. Jayapal, who is Indian American, faces a competitive primary in the state's 3rd District. One of her principal opponents is Morales, who is Latino. Meanwhile, in the 5th District, Bynum is seeking to become the first Black representative from Oregon. Two Latina incumbents in Oregon, Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas, should easily win renomination.

In Georgia, the main race of interest involving a person of color is incumbent Rep. David Scott, who faces six other Democrats of color in the majority-Black 13th District. Redistricting changed this seat significantly from the previous version Scott represented, but he's still probably favored. Flowers, who is also Black, is Scott's only challenger who really stands out, although he's not raised remotely as much as he did in 2022 or party activist Johsie Cruz Fletcher.

Elsewhere in Georgia, four Black incumbents — Democratic Reps. Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson, Nikema Williams and Lucy McBath — all look set to win renomination in their solidly blue districts. Only McBath has any primary opposition, as she faces Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson and state Rep. Mandisha Thomas, who are both Black, in the redrawn 6th District. Johnson, meanwhile, can look forward to a November matchup against Republican Eugene Yu, a Korean American and perennial candidate who is unopposed for his party's nomination in the 4th District.

In some of Georgia's solid red seats, the Democratic nominees will also likely be people of color. In the 14th District, retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris, who is Black, has raised a few hundred thousand dollars and looks favored to advance to November, where Greene will be heavily advantaged. In the 12th District, either 2022 nominee Liz Johnson or Army veteran Daniel Jackson, both Black, will be the Democratic pick against Republican Rep. Rick Allen, who'll likely win reelection. In the 11th District, businessman Antonio Daza, who is Latino, may be favored to win the Democratic nod to face GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk, to whom Daza lost in the 2022 general election.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Richardson, who is Black, is the only person of color on a House primary ballot today in Kentucky; he's one of a few Democrats looking to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Andy Barr in the safely red 6th District this fall. No candidates of color are running today in Idaho.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538