Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Trump has a stronger showing in Kentucky

Though Trump has already clinched the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, many states have yet to vote in their party primary. Political observers have been closely watching Trump's margins in these states for any potential signs of weakness with his base ahead of the general election. While many who vote against Trump in the primary probably weren't going to vote for him in the general election anyway, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the presidential race in March, has routinely been garnering between 15 and 20 percent of the vote in primaries since then, a potential sign of dissatisfaction with Trump among some Republicans.

Whether or not you think that means trouble for Trump in November, he's not having that problem in Kentucky tonight: With 72 percent of the expected vote in, the former president is currently winning 85 percent of the vote, while Haley is at just 6 percent.

—Cooper Burton, 538


Checking in on anti-abortion candidates

Two of the four anti-abortion Republican candidates we've been tracking in Kentucky are projected to win their races, according to The Associated Press. Incumbents Guthrie and Massie prevailed against their challengers, while Edwards lost to incumbent Rogers.

In Georgia, Yu, McCormick, Scott, Clyde, Collins, and Greene were uncontested in their respective districts. In the 11th District Republican primary, Loudermilk is projected to defeat his challenger. With just over half the expected vote reporting, he has 88 percent of the vote.

—Monica Potts, 538


Some downballot drama in Georgia

Looking a little further down the ballot in the Peach State, Democrats are hoping they can reclaim the state legislative 56th District in Atlanta. Technically, Democrats won this seat in the last election, but state Rep. Mesha Mainor switched parties last year, after Democrats criticized her conservative stance on issues like school vouchers and policing.

Mainor is running unopposed in the GOP primary tonight, but four candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, including 23-year-old public school math teacher Bryce Berry, who is currently leading with 55 percent, with half of the expected votes in. Berry has accumulated a decent war chest for a state House race, and has the endorsement of some high profile state Democrats, including House Democratic chairman Bill Mitchell and several local state Reps and state Senators, so it's not a total surprise to see him in the lead. If he wins the nomination tonight, he'll square off against Mainor in the fall to see if the Democrats can prevail despite no longer having the incumbent candidate.

Kaleigh Rogers, 538


A good sign for November?

It’s only 8 p.m. Eastern, and yet 40 percent of the statewide vote is reporting in Georgia and we have a pretty good feel for where these races are headed. That could be a good sign for November, when Georgia will obviously be one of the most closely watched states in the nation. A clear winner here early-ish on election night would do a lot to avoid a repeat of 2020, when a winner wasn’t projected until the Saturday after the election. (And yes, I’m still traumatized from that.)

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Candidates of color to watch

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 31 people of color are running in these contests — 27 Democrats and four Republicans.

The most high-profile primaries involving these candidates are arguably in Oregon. Jayapal, who is Indian American, faces a competitive primary in the state's 3rd District. One of her principal opponents is Morales, who is Latino. Meanwhile, in the 5th District, Bynum is seeking to become the first Black representative from Oregon. Two Latina incumbents in Oregon, Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas, should easily win renomination.

In Georgia, the main race of interest involving a person of color is incumbent Rep. David Scott, who faces six other Democrats of color in the majority-Black 13th District. Redistricting changed this seat significantly from the previous version Scott represented, but he's still probably favored. Flowers, who is also Black, is Scott's only challenger who really stands out, although he's not raised remotely as much as he did in 2022 or party activist Johsie Cruz Fletcher.

Elsewhere in Georgia, four Black incumbents — Democratic Reps. Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson, Nikema Williams and Lucy McBath — all look set to win renomination in their solidly blue districts. Only McBath has any primary opposition, as she faces Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson and state Rep. Mandisha Thomas, who are both Black, in the redrawn 6th District. Johnson, meanwhile, can look forward to a November matchup against Republican Eugene Yu, a Korean American and perennial candidate who is unopposed for his party's nomination in the 4th District.

In some of Georgia's solid red seats, the Democratic nominees will also likely be people of color. In the 14th District, retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris, who is Black, has raised a few hundred thousand dollars and looks favored to advance to November, where Greene will be heavily advantaged. In the 12th District, either 2022 nominee Liz Johnson or Army veteran Daniel Jackson, both Black, will be the Democratic pick against Republican Rep. Rick Allen, who'll likely win reelection. In the 11th District, businessman Antonio Daza, who is Latino, may be favored to win the Democratic nod to face GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk, to whom Daza lost in the 2022 general election.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Richardson, who is Black, is the only person of color on a House primary ballot today in Kentucky; he's one of a few Democrats looking to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Andy Barr in the safely red 6th District this fall. No candidates of color are running today in Idaho.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538