Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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McBath projected to win her primary

McBath is projected to win her primary in Georgia's 6th District, according to The Associated Press. She is likely to win reelection in November, in this safely blue (and recently redrawn) seat.

—Monica Potts, 538


Fulton’s blueness helps Willis and McAfee

That’s right, Mary. Willis will now move on to a general election against Republican Courtney Kramer that she is heavily favored to win: Biden carried Fulton County 73 percent to 26 percent in 2020. And for McAfee, this was the general election; judicial elections in Georgia are nonpartisan, so all candidates run on the same initial ballot, and there’s only a second round of voting if no one gets a majority.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Republican ideological divide plays out in Kentucky state legislature primaries

In the downballot races for the Kentucky legislature, Republicans aligned with the "liberty" wing of the party are taking on more establishment Republicans. Some of these conservatives are recent incumbents who won seats last cycle, while others are newcomers this year, but in general they take a harder line against government spending than what they call "establishment" Republicans.

Many in the liberty wing are endorsed by national PACs like Americans for Prosperity, and PACs backing "school choice" measures that would allow tax dollars to go to private schools. Battling over support for public schools has divided the party in other states, like Texas, and I've written about the universal school voucher movement's gains over the past two years.

Some swing state Republican Parties have also torn themselves apart over even the tiniest ideological differences in swing states around the country. Battles like those in Kentucky will help shape the general election to come, and could determine the direction the party takes in governing should it win big in November.

—Monica Potts, 538


I'm not surprised to see Willis and McAfee walking away with it

That sounds about right, Nathaniel. According to a YouGov/CBS News poll in March, only 27 percent of Georgia voters thought there was "widespread voter fraud and irregularities" in the 2020 election in the state. When asked which concerns them more, that "Donald Trump tried to overturn a presidential election" or that "the charges and indictments against Donald Trump are politically motivated," likely Georgia voters were split 36-43, respectively (21 percent said both were equally concerning).

So with relatively friendly polling statewide, I'm not surprised to see the officials overseeing the case do well in more Democrat-friendly Fulton County.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Candidates of color to watch

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 31 people of color are running in these contests — 27 Democrats and four Republicans.

The most high-profile primaries involving these candidates are arguably in Oregon. Jayapal, who is Indian American, faces a competitive primary in the state's 3rd District. One of her principal opponents is Morales, who is Latino. Meanwhile, in the 5th District, Bynum is seeking to become the first Black representative from Oregon. Two Latina incumbents in Oregon, Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas, should easily win renomination.

In Georgia, the main race of interest involving a person of color is incumbent Rep. David Scott, who faces six other Democrats of color in the majority-Black 13th District. Redistricting changed this seat significantly from the previous version Scott represented, but he's still probably favored. Flowers, who is also Black, is Scott's only challenger who really stands out, although he's not raised remotely as much as he did in 2022 or party activist Johsie Cruz Fletcher.

Elsewhere in Georgia, four Black incumbents — Democratic Reps. Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson, Nikema Williams and Lucy McBath — all look set to win renomination in their solidly blue districts. Only McBath has any primary opposition, as she faces Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson and state Rep. Mandisha Thomas, who are both Black, in the redrawn 6th District. Johnson, meanwhile, can look forward to a November matchup against Republican Eugene Yu, a Korean American and perennial candidate who is unopposed for his party's nomination in the 4th District.

In some of Georgia's solid red seats, the Democratic nominees will also likely be people of color. In the 14th District, retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris, who is Black, has raised a few hundred thousand dollars and looks favored to advance to November, where Greene will be heavily advantaged. In the 12th District, either 2022 nominee Liz Johnson or Army veteran Daniel Jackson, both Black, will be the Democratic pick against Republican Rep. Rick Allen, who'll likely win reelection. In the 11th District, businessman Antonio Daza, who is Latino, may be favored to win the Democratic nod to face GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk, to whom Daza lost in the 2022 general election.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Richardson, who is Black, is the only person of color on a House primary ballot today in Kentucky; he's one of a few Democrats looking to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Andy Barr in the safely red 6th District this fall. No candidates of color are running today in Idaho.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538