Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

Pinson is doing well in Atlanta suburbs, a signal that he may stick around on the state Supreme Court

In the only contested state Supreme Court race tonight in Georgia, the incumbent Justice Andrew Pinson (the Republican pick) is currently leading former Democratic Rep. John Barrow. With 23 percent of the expected votes in, Pinson leads 54 percent to 46 percent. And while the county-level results are largely breaking the way we'd expect, Pinson is picking up the lead in some unexpected parts of the Atlanta suburbs. As Nathaniel pointed out on X, Pinson leads in Douglas County, which went for Biden 62–37 percent in 2020, as well as Gwinnett County—which Biden carried 58–40 percent in 2020. He's leading, too, in Henry County, which Biden won with 60 percent of the vote in 2020, and currently (narrowly) ahead in Clayton County, which went for Biden 85-14 percent! It could be that these suburban voters are happy with the status quo, or agreed with Pinson's characterization that Barrow was "politicizing" this non-partisan race by focusing so intently on the issue of abortion, but whatever the reason, Pinson is probably happy to see these early numbers.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


McBath holding a strong lead in her new district

Because of redistricting, McBath is running in a redrawn 6th district instead of the 7th, which she currently represents. But her name recognition and fundraising strength looks like they're carrying over. With 37 percent of the expected vote in, she has a commanding 88 percent of the vote, according to the AP.

—Monica Potts, 538


The main characters in Trump’s Georgia trial are coasting tonight

If you’ve been following Trump’s legal woes, some of the names on today’s ballot will be familiar to you: Both Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who charged Trump in connection with his efforts to subvert the results of the 2020 election in Georgia, and Judge Scott McAfee, who’s overseeing the case, are running for reelection this year. And neither one of them is encountering any trouble: The AP is already projecting that Willis has won her Democratic primary 90 percent to 11 percent over a token challenger. And the AP has also projected that McAfee will win reelection over his “conservative Democratic” opponent, 83 percent to 17 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


There are no Republican women running in Georgia's 3rd

The primary for the GOP nomination in Georgia's 3rd District is a competitive one! Its a safely red district, where an incumbent is not seeking reelection, but as I mentioned earlier on the liveblog, there aren't any Republican women among the field. In 2020, we watched where Republicans were nominating women and found that through the August races, only six out of 77 Republican women who had won GOP nomination won in a safe Republican seat. A whopping 49 of those women won in safe Democratic seats. In other words, they were winning primaries in places where they won't win in November. We'll be looking at whether this is the case in 2024, too.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Candidates of color to watch

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 31 people of color are running in these contests — 27 Democrats and four Republicans.

The most high-profile primaries involving these candidates are arguably in Oregon. Jayapal, who is Indian American, faces a competitive primary in the state's 3rd District. One of her principal opponents is Morales, who is Latino. Meanwhile, in the 5th District, Bynum is seeking to become the first Black representative from Oregon. Two Latina incumbents in Oregon, Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democratic Rep. Andrea Salinas, should easily win renomination.

In Georgia, the main race of interest involving a person of color is incumbent Rep. David Scott, who faces six other Democrats of color in the majority-Black 13th District. Redistricting changed this seat significantly from the previous version Scott represented, but he's still probably favored. Flowers, who is also Black, is Scott's only challenger who really stands out, although he's not raised remotely as much as he did in 2022 or party activist Johsie Cruz Fletcher.

Elsewhere in Georgia, four Black incumbents — Democratic Reps. Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson, Nikema Williams and Lucy McBath — all look set to win renomination in their solidly blue districts. Only McBath has any primary opposition, as she faces Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson and state Rep. Mandisha Thomas, who are both Black, in the redrawn 6th District. Johnson, meanwhile, can look forward to a November matchup against Republican Eugene Yu, a Korean American and perennial candidate who is unopposed for his party's nomination in the 4th District.

In some of Georgia's solid red seats, the Democratic nominees will also likely be people of color. In the 14th District, retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris, who is Black, has raised a few hundred thousand dollars and looks favored to advance to November, where Greene will be heavily advantaged. In the 12th District, either 2022 nominee Liz Johnson or Army veteran Daniel Jackson, both Black, will be the Democratic pick against Republican Rep. Rick Allen, who'll likely win reelection. In the 11th District, businessman Antonio Daza, who is Latino, may be favored to win the Democratic nod to face GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk, to whom Daza lost in the 2022 general election.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Richardson, who is Black, is the only person of color on a House primary ballot today in Kentucky; he's one of a few Democrats looking to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Andy Barr in the safely red 6th District this fall. No candidates of color are running today in Idaho.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538