Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

Can Jack avoid a runoff in Georgia’s 3rd?

We’re up to 40 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican primary for Georgia’s 3rd District, according to the AP, and Jack is up to 47 percent of the vote. If he can clear the majority threshold, he’ll avoid a June 18 runoff — and he’s trending in the right direction.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Anti-Biden protest votes in Kentucky

Last week, we saw a fair amount of protest voting against Biden in the Democratic presidential primary in West Virginia’s coal country — an ancestrally Democratic area that still has a lot of voters registered with the party, but they’re much more conservative nowadays. Well, the same thing is happening in Kentucky’s coal country just over the border: For example, in Pike County, Biden is beating “Uncommitted” just 44 percent to 36 percent. Statewide, Biden has just 71 percent of the vote, which would be among his worst showings in the nation.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Meanwhile, in DeKalb County, it’s incumbent vs incumbent

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Two popular, incumbent Democrats in neighboring districts are suddenly forced to challenge one another in a primary when new, Republican-drawn maps toss them into the same district during the redistricting process. State Reps. Saira Draper and Becky Evans are in just such a pickle tonight as they vie for the Democratic nomination in Georgia's 90th District in DeKalb County. Evans, a former political aide and media production manager, was first elected in 2018, while Draper, an attorney and voting rights activist, won her seat in 2022. However, Evans has represents about 30 percent of the new district, making Draper a de facto incumbent of the two incumbents. With 46 percent of the vote reporting, Draper is leading 64 percent to Evans's 36 percent. Whoever wins tonight will be running unopposed in this deep blue district.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Trump has a stronger showing in Kentucky

Though Trump has already clinched the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, many states have yet to vote in their party primary. Political observers have been closely watching Trump's margins in these states for any potential signs of weakness with his base ahead of the general election. While many who vote against Trump in the primary probably weren't going to vote for him in the general election anyway, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the presidential race in March, has routinely been garnering between 15 and 20 percent of the vote in primaries since then, a potential sign of dissatisfaction with Trump among some Republicans.

Whether or not you think that means trouble for Trump in November, he's not having that problem in Kentucky tonight: With 72 percent of the expected vote in, the former president is currently winning 85 percent of the vote, while Haley is at just 6 percent.

—Cooper Burton, 538


Democratic women we’re watching

According to the Center for American Women and Politics, in primaries that have been decided through May 8, 41 percent of Democrats' U.S. House nominees thus far are women, compared to just 14 percent of Republicans'. In short, Democrats are nominating many more women in this cycle than Republicans, thus far.

We are watching several Democratic women today who are looking to add to those numbers, including a couple of primaries in Oregon where multiple female candidates are facing off in races that have drawn contentious outside spending.

In Oregon's 5th District, two women — state Rep. Janelle Bynum and attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner — are running to face the one-term incumbent, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, in the general. Chavez-DeRemer, one of just 34 Republican women in the House, won election in 2022 by defeating McLeod-Skinner by just 2 percentage points. In 2022, with support from progressive groups like Our Revolution and Indivisible, McLeod-Skinner successfully mounted a progressive challenge to defeat a seven-term incumbent (Kurt Schrader) before losing to Chavez-DeRemer. In today's primary, McLeod-Skinner doesn't have endorsements from Our Revolution or Indivisible, but she is endorsed by many local groups, and a few sitting members of Congress, while Bynum is endorsed by EMILYs List, plus Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek. No matter who wins, November's general election will be a rematch. Bynum defeated Chavez-DeRemer in state house races in 2016 and 2018. This district will play a crucial role in the Republicans' attempts to maintain their slim majority in the U.S. House.

In Oregon's deep-blue 3rd District, several women are competing for the nomination to replace longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer, who is not seeking reelection. In this crowded primary, two progressive women look to be the leading candidates — state Rep. Maxine Dexter and former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal. Jayapal's sister is Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the Democratic congresswoman from Washington, and member of The Squad. EMILYs List has not endorsed in this race.

Elsewhere in the state, EMILYs List has endorsed two Oregon incumbents — Rep. Val Hoyle in the 4th District and Rep. Andrea Salinas in the 6th. In 2022, Hoyle won her general election by about 7 points, and Salinas won hers by less than 3 points. Both are seen as targets for Republicans aiming to pick up seats this fall.

In Georgia's safely blue 6th District, recently redrawn due to redistricting, the Democrats' entire field is women: Rep. Lucy McBath (who currently represents the 7th District), state Rep. Mandisha Thomas and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. And in the 13th, Rep. David Scott, who is 78 and also just saw his district redrawn, faces a host of challengers, two of whom are women — Uloma Kama, a physician, and Karen Rene, an attorney.

Finally, in Idaho's 1st District, Kaylee Peterson is running unopposed to face Rep. Russ Fulcher in this deep-red district in November, as she did in 2022. And in Kentucky, Erin Marshall is running unopposed in the 1st District, which is also a safely red seat and therefore an unlikely pickup for Democrats. I've written before that Republicans are more likely to nominate women as sacrificial lambs (which is a candidate who runs unopposed in a primary for a losing November seat to give members of their party a choice in the race), but Democrats do it, too! A Democratic woman (Shauna Rudd) is also running in Kentucky's 6th District against four men. This is also a safely red seat.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor