Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Answer: Incumbency advantage
The incumbency advantage probably played a role here. And awareness about this race was probably low, even as Barrow tried to elevate it and tie it to a consequential issue, like abortion. I agree with Cooper that perhaps the stakes weren't high enough.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Answer: Abortion is a little different in Georgia
In addition to what Geoffrey and Cooper said, I’d also echo what Mary said about abortion polling in the state in an earlier post. Abortion is just a little less important to Georgia voters than it is nationally. That said, none of this means abortion won’t matter to voters in November. And as we’ve seen time and time again, the issue tends to give Democrats an edge.
—Monica Potts, 538
Answer: Part of the issue may simply be money
According to AdImpact, a lot less money was spent in support of Barrow than of Pinson.
But I'm actually struck by how little money was spent in this race at all! Just over 3 million dollars was spent in 2024 in support of either candidate, which is far less than we usually see for a high profile, competitive statewide election. This may have just flown under voters' radar in general, and having Pinson marked as the incumbent on the ballot may have also been enough to put him over the top.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Answer: Perhaps the stakes weren’t high enough
It’s interesting, Nathaniel: Abortion ranked as the third-most important issue in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll of Georgia. And 64 percent of respondents to that poll said they thought abortion should be always or mostly legal. But perhaps voters today didn’t see their vote as having much of an impact; after all, regardless of the outcome of this race, conservatives will still dominate the state Supreme Court, where eight of the nine justices were appointed by Republicans.
—Cooper Burton, 538
Georgia voters split on issue priorities by partisanship — except on the economy
Like voters across the country, Georgia voters name "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" as the most important issue facing the state, according to an April survey from Emerson College/The Hill/Nexstar. Thirty-five percent of registered Georgia voters selected the economy as the most important issue from a list provided by the pollster, including 28 percent of Democrats, 41 percent of Republicans, and 34 percent of independents, making it the top issue for all three groups.
After that, though, the groups diverged: 19 percent of Republicans selected immigration as the most important issue facing Georgia, while less than 1 percent of Democrats agreed. The second most chosen issue among Democrats in Georgia was healthcare, with 20 percent of registered Democrats saying it was the most important issue — unlike other states we've looked at so far this primary season, where threats to democracy and abortion access tended to be top issues for Democrats. Georgia Democrats do care about abortion as well: "abortion access" was the third most selected response among registered Democrats, with 12 percent selecting it, compared to just 2 percent of Republicans.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538