Elsewhere in Oregon, Crook County is poised to become the 13th county to vote to secede from the state and join Idaho. These ballot initiatives are non-binding advisory votes, but a large swath of the sparsely-populated eastern part of the state has voted in favor of secession since 2020.

—Irena Li, 538

Interesting, guys. Yeah, the multiple variables at play in Oregon make it hard to say whether Oregon Democrats were consciously pushing back against progressives or if the big spending just overwhelmed everything else.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Ultimately, in congressional primaries, if you are getting absolutely swamped by your opponent with advertising — both negative and positive, unlike in some other recent primaries with spending disparities — you're going to have a hard time. Susheela Jayapal was up against $5.7 million in pro-Dexter spending and could only marshal a few hundred thousand dollars of advertising. McLeod-Skinner faced $5.7 million of outside spending hitting her and boosting Bynum and only aired about $200,000 worth of advertisements. In an expensive media market, that makes it tough to get your message out, let alone respond effectively to attacks.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

That's interesting, Meredith, but I also think that Portland-area voters are a little frustrated with the progressive movement, particularly in the wake of the debacle with decriminalizing drugs that the legislature recently rolled back. There may be some local dynamics that really matter in Oregon, but aren't as influential elsewhere in the country, that are holding progressive candidates back — as you can see in my previous post about polling in the area regarding homelessness and crime. Both the 5th and 3rd districts are in the Portland area, so progressives there may be suffering some blowback from these issues.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

That sounds about right, Nathaniel. According to a YouGov/CBS News poll in March, only 27 percent of Georgia voters thought there was "widespread voter fraud and irregularities" in the 2020 election in the state. When asked which concerns them more, that "Donald Trump tried to overturn a presidential election" or that "the charges and indictments against Donald Trump are politically motivated," likely Georgia voters were split 36-43, respectively (21 percent said both were equally concerning).

So with relatively friendly polling statewide, I'm not surprised to see the officials overseeing the case do well in more Democrat-friendly Fulton County.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538