Well, that wasn't as interesting as we expected. ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Maxine Dexter is projected to win the Democratic primary in Oregon's solidly blue 3rd District. With 45 percent of the expected vote reporting, Dexter leads Jayapal 53 percent to 25 percent. This result prevents some history: Had Jayapal won this race and gone on to win the general election, she and her sister Pramila Jayapal (a representative from Washington state) would've been the first sisters to serve in Congress at the same time while representing different states. In November, Dexter will almost certainly win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Earl Blumenauer in the Portland-based seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

We've got a little bit of the vote counted counted in Idaho's 1st District, and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson is in command with 58 percent of the vote, a 25-point lead over challenger Scott Cleveland, per the AP. Simpson beat back a stronger primary opponent last cycle and looks like he'll be back again next year.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Janelle Bynum is projected to win the Democratic primary in Oregon's 5th District over attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. With 49 percent of the expected vote reporting, Bynum leads 70 percent to 30 percent. This is a win for the DCCC, which backed Bynum in the primary in the hopes that she'd be a stronger bet for the party than McLeod-Skinner, who lost the 2022 general election to Chavez-DeRemer.

Notably, when McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the 2022 Democratic primary here, she did so by holding down Schrader's margins in Clackamas County outside Portland and running up big margins in Deschutes County and the small part of Multnomah in the district. But tonight, Bynum leads by substantial margins in every part of the district.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

And that’s that: ABC News reports that Fong is projected to win the special election in California’s 20th District. He’s expected to be sworn into the House soon, giving Johnson a crucial additional Republican vote. Once he is sworn in, the House will stand at 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats, meaning Johnson can afford two Republican defections on party-line votes and still win.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Looking ahead to Oregon's results, the Portland-based 3rd District hosts one of the big contests of the night. Longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer's retirement has left open this solidly blue seat, and three contenders with progressive brands are competing for the Democratic nomination: state Rep. Maxine Dexter, former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales. At first blush, Jayapal looked to be the front-runner, as she previously represented close to 30 percent of the 3rd District's overall population — far more than Dexter or Morales. She also sports ties to national progressives via her younger sister, Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Yet a late campaign cash bonanza may have turned the race on its head, to Dexter's benefit. Pre-primary financial reports through May 1 showed that Dexter had received a massive late boost to bring her campaign total to $919,000, ahead of Jayapal's $773,000 and Morales's $606,000. And from May 2 to May 19, Dexter reported $419,000 in major contributions, far more than her opponents' combined $150,000. Meanwhile, outside groups have spent more than $5 million either supporting Dexter or opposing Jayapal. The 314 Action Fund, a progressive group that supports candidates with science backgrounds, has doled out $2.2 million on ads promoting Dexter and a super PAC with unclear ties, Voters for Responsive Government, has spent $3.2 million on spots attacking Jayapal.

This surge of money has brooked controversy because it appears at least partly connected to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a bipartisan pro-Israel group opposed to progressive critics of Israel's military action in Gaza. While Dexter supports "a negotiated cease-fire" and Morales has called for aid to Gaza, Jayapal has emphasized her consistent and early calls for a cease-fire — so it would follow that groups like AIPAC would prefer that someone else wins. Tellingly, an analysis by Oregon Public Broadcasting found that a substantial portion of Dexter's last-minute donors have a history of giving to AIPAC, and some recently supported notable Republicans such as House Speaker Mike Johnson.

More controversially, The Intercept published reports in early May alleging that AIPAC funneled money to the 314 Action Fund to spend on Dexter's behalf, presumably because more direct intervention by AIPAC could backfire in a progressive-inclined district. The 314 Action Fund denied the allegations, and in the last pre-primary filing from the group on Monday evening, it turned out that a substantial chunk of the organization's recently raised cash came from billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and financier Rob Granieri. Either way, the money could prove to be a massive difference-maker for Dexter's campaign.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538