Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Fong projected to win in California’s 20th
And that’s that: ABC News reports that Fong is projected to win the special election in California’s 20th District. He’s expected to be sworn into the House soon, giving Johnson a crucial additional Republican vote. Once he is sworn in, the House will stand at 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats, meaning Johnson can afford two Republican defections on party-line votes and still win.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Dexter out to a big lead in Oregon’s 3rd District
Dexter was the big beneficiary of outside spending in the Democratic primary in Oregon’s 3rd District, and the early returns suggest those dollars really may have boosted her despite the fact she represents almost none of this seat in her current state legislative district. With 41 percent of the expected vote reporting, Dexter leads Jayapal 52 percent to 26 percent, so the outstanding votes are going to have to look pretty different for Jayapal to catch Dexter. Jayapal is trying to join her younger sister, Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal, in the House.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Georgia’s 3rd is going to a runoff
The AP is projecting that Jack and Dugan will go to a runoff to decide the Republican nominee in Georgia’s 3rd District. With 92 percent of the expected vote in, Jack has 47 percent and Dugan has 25 percent. The Trump-endorsed Jack will therefore go into the June 18 runoff a strong favorite to win.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Fong leads in California’s 20th
With 32 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican-on-Republican California 20th District special election, Assemblyman Vince Fong is leading Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux 74 percent to 26 percent. This is no surprise, since Fong had the endorsement of both Speaker Mike Johnson and ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whose resignation triggered this special election.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Major outside spending could tip the scales in Oregon’s 3rd District
Looking ahead to Oregon's results, the Portland-based 3rd District hosts one of the big contests of the night. Longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer's retirement has left open this solidly blue seat, and three contenders with progressive brands are competing for the Democratic nomination: state Rep. Maxine Dexter, former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales. At first blush, Jayapal looked to be the front-runner, as she previously represented close to 30 percent of the 3rd District's overall population — far more than Dexter or Morales. She also sports ties to national progressives via her younger sister, Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
Yet a late campaign cash bonanza may have turned the race on its head, to Dexter's benefit. Pre-primary financial reports through May 1 showed that Dexter had received a massive late boost to bring her campaign total to $919,000, ahead of Jayapal's $773,000 and Morales's $606,000. And from May 2 to May 19, Dexter reported $419,000 in major contributions, far more than her opponents' combined $150,000. Meanwhile, outside groups have spent more than $5 million either supporting Dexter or opposing Jayapal. The 314 Action Fund, a progressive group that supports candidates with science backgrounds, has doled out $2.2 million on ads promoting Dexter and a super PAC with unclear ties, Voters for Responsive Government, has spent $3.2 million on spots attacking Jayapal.
This surge of money has brooked controversy because it appears at least partly connected to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a bipartisan pro-Israel group opposed to progressive critics of Israel's military action in Gaza. While Dexter supports "a negotiated cease-fire" and Morales has called for aid to Gaza, Jayapal has emphasized her consistent and early calls for a cease-fire — so it would follow that groups like AIPAC would prefer that someone else wins. Tellingly, an analysis by Oregon Public Broadcasting found that a substantial portion of Dexter's last-minute donors have a history of giving to AIPAC, and some recently supported notable Republicans such as House Speaker Mike Johnson.
More controversially, The Intercept published reports in early May alleging that AIPAC funneled money to the 314 Action Fund to spend on Dexter's behalf, presumably because more direct intervention by AIPAC could backfire in a progressive-inclined district. The 314 Action Fund denied the allegations, and in the last pre-primary filing from the group on Monday evening, it turned out that a substantial chunk of the organization's recently raised cash came from billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and financier Rob Granieri. Either way, the money could prove to be a massive difference-maker for Dexter's campaign.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538