Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Scott leading in Georgia's 13th

With over a third of the expected vote in, incumbent Scott is leading in the Democratic primary in Georgia's 13th congressional district with 60 percent of the vote so far, according to the AP. The race is a microcosm of the issues affecting the entire Democratic Party, with his younger, newer challengers attacking his age, potential health and time in office. But the crowded field my split the vote against him.

—Monica Potts, 538


Massie didn't get Trump's nod this time around

We've been tracking Trump's endorsements of House candidates, and despite getting an endorsement from the former president in 2022, this time around Trump withheld his nod. Massie was the only incumbent Republican in tonight's races that Trump did not endorse -- though Trump didn't endorse any of his opponents, either. As Tia alluded to, Trump and Massie haven't always gotten along in the past.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Massie and Rogers both cruise in Kentucky

Of Kentucky's five GOP incumbents, two tonight faced challengers, and both prevailed easily.

ABC News reports that Republican incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie — noted obstructionist and slinger of social media sass — will prevail over challengers Eric Deters and Michael McGinnis in Kentucky's 4th District. With around 58 percent of the expected vote reporting, he leads with 75 percent of the vote. Rep. Hal Rogers — who holds the title of House Dean, or longest serving member of the House of Representatives — had an even easier time in the 5th District. With around 52 percent of the expected vote reporting, he's garnered 81 percent.

While both these contests went as expected, Massie's did see some intrigue. Deters tried to get Massie thrown off the ballot earlier this year, and the incumbent has certainly made enemies within his own party with his hardline opposition to foreign spending and other legislation. AIPAC-affiliated ad spending in this House race was apparently intended to weaken him for potential future runs for higher office.

P.S. If you're bored waiting for results, I highly recommend browsing the #sassywithmassie hashtag.

—Tia Yang, 538


First results out of Georgia’s 3rd District

According to The Associated Press, 10 percent of the expected vote is now reporting in the GOP primary for Georgia's 3rd District, and Jack leads Dugan 42 percent to 30 percent. Remember, though, if no one wins a majority today, this race will go to a runoff.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Major outside spending could tip the scales in Oregon’s 3rd District

Looking ahead to Oregon's results, the Portland-based 3rd District hosts one of the big contests of the night. Longtime Rep. Earl Blumenauer's retirement has left open this solidly blue seat, and three contenders with progressive brands are competing for the Democratic nomination: state Rep. Maxine Dexter, former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales. At first blush, Jayapal looked to be the front-runner, as she previously represented close to 30 percent of the 3rd District's overall population — far more than Dexter or Morales. She also sports ties to national progressives via her younger sister, Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Yet a late campaign cash bonanza may have turned the race on its head, to Dexter's benefit. Pre-primary financial reports through May 1 showed that Dexter had received a massive late boost to bring her campaign total to $919,000, ahead of Jayapal's $773,000 and Morales's $606,000. And from May 2 to May 19, Dexter reported $419,000 in major contributions, far more than her opponents' combined $150,000. Meanwhile, outside groups have spent more than $5 million either supporting Dexter or opposing Jayapal. The 314 Action Fund, a progressive group that supports candidates with science backgrounds, has doled out $2.2 million on ads promoting Dexter and a super PAC with unclear ties, Voters for Responsive Government, has spent $3.2 million on spots attacking Jayapal.

This surge of money has brooked controversy because it appears at least partly connected to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a bipartisan pro-Israel group opposed to progressive critics of Israel's military action in Gaza. While Dexter supports "a negotiated cease-fire" and Morales has called for aid to Gaza, Jayapal has emphasized her consistent and early calls for a cease-fire — so it would follow that groups like AIPAC would prefer that someone else wins. Tellingly, an analysis by Oregon Public Broadcasting found that a substantial portion of Dexter's last-minute donors have a history of giving to AIPAC, and some recently supported notable Republicans such as House Speaker Mike Johnson.

More controversially, The Intercept published reports in early May alleging that AIPAC funneled money to the 314 Action Fund to spend on Dexter's behalf, presumably because more direct intervention by AIPAC could backfire in a progressive-inclined district. The 314 Action Fund denied the allegations, and in the last pre-primary filing from the group on Monday evening, it turned out that a substantial chunk of the organization's recently raised cash came from billionaire former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and financier Rob Granieri. Either way, the money could prove to be a massive difference-maker for Dexter's campaign.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538