Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Answer: Abortion wasn’t really on the ballot, despite Barrow’s attempts to make it so
Since control of the Georgia Supreme Court wasn’t up for grabs, it’s hard to see one seat’s election as a real referendum on abortion. Add in the fact that Barrow’s attacks on Pinson kind of fell flat — yes, Pinson previously defended the state’s abortion ban, but as solicitor general, it was his job to defend the law against a legal challenge — and it just wasn’t enough to galvanize voters.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
Answer: Incumbency advantage
The incumbency advantage probably played a role here. And awareness about this race was probably low, even as Barrow tried to elevate it and tie it to a consequential issue, like abortion. I agree with Cooper that perhaps the stakes weren't high enough.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Answer: Abortion is a little different in Georgia
In addition to what Geoffrey and Cooper said, I’d also echo what Mary said about abortion polling in the state in an earlier post. Abortion is just a little less important to Georgia voters than it is nationally. That said, none of this means abortion won’t matter to voters in November. And as we’ve seen time and time again, the issue tends to give Democrats an edge.
—Monica Potts, 538
Answer: Part of the issue may simply be money
According to AdImpact, a lot less money was spent in support of Barrow than of Pinson.
But I'm actually struck by how little money was spent in this race at all! Just over 3 million dollars was spent in 2024 in support of either candidate, which is far less than we usually see for a high profile, competitive statewide election. This may have just flown under voters' radar in general, and having Pinson marked as the incumbent on the ballot may have also been enough to put him over the top.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Massie and Rogers both cruise in Kentucky
Of Kentucky's five GOP incumbents, two tonight faced challengers, and both prevailed easily.
ABC News reports that Republican incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie — noted obstructionist and slinger of social media sass — will prevail over challengers Eric Deters and Michael McGinnis in Kentucky's 4th District. With around 58 percent of the expected vote reporting, he leads with 75 percent of the vote. Rep. Hal Rogers — who holds the title of House Dean, or longest serving member of the House of Representatives — had an even easier time in the 5th District. With around 52 percent of the expected vote reporting, he's garnered 81 percent.
While both these contests went as expected, Massie's did see some intrigue. Deters tried to get Massie thrown off the ballot earlier this year, and the incumbent has certainly made enemies within his own party with his hardline opposition to foreign spending and other legislation. AIPAC-affiliated ad spending in this House race was apparently intended to weaken him for potential future runs for higher office.
P.S. — If you're bored waiting for results, I highly recommend browsing the #sassywithmassie hashtag.
—Tia Yang, 538