Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Reexamining conventional campaign wisdom
Here's something to do while waiting on those results ...
When it comes to winning elections, is it really, "the economy, stupid?" Are "soccer moms" the quintessential swing voter? And does it matter which candidate you'd rather share a beer with? Every election cycle, cliches come easy. But are they right?
That's what we try to get to the bottom of in our new mini-series on the 538 Politics podcast, "Campaign Throwback." In the first installment we interrogate the role that the economy plays in electoral outcomes, in the second we ask how suburban women came to be viewed as swing voters and whether that is the case today. In our final installment, which will come out tomorrow morning, we look at the "beer question." Starting in the 2000s, pollsters and pundits began speculating that voters are drawn to the candidate they'd rather have a beer with. We go back and look at the data to try to determine if that's actually how Americans choose their presidents.
So while you wait for that last set of polls to close, take some time to catch up on the latest "Campaign Throwback" episodes in the podcast feed, and tune back in tomorrow morning for our final installment!
—Galen Druke, 538
Mainstream Republicans are trying to take their party back in Idaho
Perhaps the most interesting elections today in Idaho — where the first polls have just closed — are for the obscure position of precinct committeeman for the local GOP. As Monica has written, many state Republican parties are at war with themselves, and that’s the case in Idaho as well: Two traditionalist GOP groups, North Idaho Republicans and Gem State Conservatives, are trying to win as many precinct committeemen posts as possible in order to wrest control away from the party’s right wing, some of whom have ties to white nationalists.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Scott has prevailed in his primary in Georgia's 13th Congressional District
Incumbent Democratic Rep. Scott has won his primary against 6 challengers, according to The Associated Press. He is likely to win reelection in this safe blue seat outside of Atlanta in November.
—Monica Potts, 538
Polls are now closed in southern Idaho and part of Oregon
It’s 10 p.m. Eastern, which means that polls are now closed in most of Idaho (the southern, most populous part) as well as in a sliver of eastern Oregon (however, the vast vast majority of Oregon won’t be done voting until 11 p.m. Eastern).
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Simpson prevails in Idaho
The AP is now projecting that Simpson has won the Republican nomination in Idaho's 2nd District. The story of Simpson's career is that he has been moderate enough to arouse significant discontent in primaries, but not enough discontent to make him lose. This time around, he's pulling 57 percent of the vote.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538