Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Dexter projected to win in Oregon's 3rd District

Well, that wasn't as interesting as we expected. ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Maxine Dexter is projected to win the Democratic primary in Oregon's solidly blue 3rd District. With 45 percent of the expected vote reporting, Dexter leads Jayapal 53 percent to 25 percent. This result prevents some history: Had Jayapal won this race and gone on to win the general election, she and her sister Pramila Jayapal (a representative from Washington state) would've been the first sisters to serve in Congress at the same time while representing different states. In November, Dexter will almost certainly win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Earl Blumenauer in the Portland-based seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Simpson seems strong

We've got a little bit of the vote counted counted in Idaho's 1st District, and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson is in command with 58 percent of the vote, a 25-point lead over challenger Scott Cleveland, per the AP. Simpson beat back a stronger primary opponent last cycle and looks like he'll be back again next year.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Bynum projected to win in Oregon's 5th District

ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Janelle Bynum is projected to win the Democratic primary in Oregon's 5th District over attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. With 49 percent of the expected vote reporting, Bynum leads 70 percent to 30 percent. This is a win for the DCCC, which backed Bynum in the primary in the hopes that she'd be a stronger bet for the party than McLeod-Skinner, who lost the 2022 general election to Chavez-DeRemer.

Notably, when McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the 2022 Democratic primary here, she did so by holding down Schrader's margins in Clackamas County outside Portland and running up big margins in Deschutes County and the small part of Multnomah in the district. But tonight, Bynum leads by substantial margins in every part of the district.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Fong projected to win in California’s 20th

And that’s that: ABC News reports that Fong is projected to win the special election in California’s 20th District. He’s expected to be sworn into the House soon, giving Johnson a crucial additional Republican vote. Once he is sworn in, the House will stand at 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats, meaning Johnson can afford two Republican defections on party-line votes and still win.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Some downballot drama in Georgia

Looking a little further down the ballot in the Peach State, Democrats are hoping they can reclaim the state legislative 56th District in Atlanta. Technically, Democrats won this seat in the last election, but state Rep. Mesha Mainor switched parties last year, after Democrats criticized her conservative stance on issues like school vouchers and policing.

Mainor is running unopposed in the GOP primary tonight, but four candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, including 23-year-old public school math teacher Bryce Berry, who is currently leading with 55 percent, with half of the expected votes in. Berry has accumulated a decent war chest for a state House race, and has the endorsement of some high profile state Democrats, including House Democratic chairman Bill Mitchell and several local state Reps and state Senators, so it's not a total surprise to see him in the lead. If he wins the nomination tonight, he'll square off against Mainor in the fall to see if the Democrats can prevail despite no longer having the incumbent candidate.

Kaleigh Rogers, 538