Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Kentucky voters don't love school vouchers

Interesting, Monica! In a January survey from RABA Research, Kentucky voters were asked if they supported "diverting taxpayer dollars away from neighborhood public schools to use for private school vouchers." Only 26 percent said they supported vouchers and 74 percent opposed — though the question wording is a bit loaded, so we may expect that support could be a tad higher with a more neutral question. But given the very low support, I'm fascinated to hear that it's still a live issue in the state.

Mary Radcliffe, 538


Two challengers are neck-and-neck in a Kentucky state Senate seat

In a Kentucky state Senate seat, it looks like an incumbent, state Sen. Adrienne Southworth, may be unseated by one of her two challengers, both former Navy SEALS. Aaron Reed is at 39 percent, and the other challenger, Ed Gallrein, is at 38 percent, with more than 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, while Southworth is at 22 percent.

Southworth, who represents the district just east of Louisville, was weakened by fights against her own party, largely stemming from her spreading election fraud conspiracy theories. But there's also little ideological daylight between Reed and Gallrein, and one political observer, Teri Carter, wrote that it largely seemed like a competition to wear the biggest cowboy hat. Control of the state Senate isn't at stake because Republicans have a supermajority in the legislature, but battles like this one could make a difference for issues like whether school vouchers can be used to pay for private schools in the state.

—Monica Potts, 538


Lest you think only Democrats have competitive state legislature races in Georgia …

… There’s a downballot GOP race worth checking in on as well! In the 131st state House District outside of Augusta, five candidates are running to be the Republican nominee, hoping to replace retiring state Rep. Jodi Lott. Right now, a local construction company owner, Rob Clifton, is in the lead, with 49 percent of the vote, with more than 95 percent of the expected vote in. If he can’t clear the majority threshold, he’ll have to face off against the next highest vote-getter — retired educator Paul Abbott — in a runoff. Clifton lapped the other candidates when it came to fundraising, raising over $100,000. The next highest fundraiser, cigar shop owner Russell Wilder, raised just half that. If Clifton wins the nomination, he’ll be facing off against Democrat Heather White in November, though Republicans have an edge in this district that Trump won by 62 percent in 2022.

Kaleigh Rogers, 538


AP projects Pinson to be reelected to the Georgia state Supreme Court

After enjoying a lead throughout the night, the writing is on the wall. The Associated Press has called the Georgia state Supreme Court race for incumbent Justice Andrew Pinson, the conservative candidate on the ticket. As we discussed earlier, there were probably a number of reasons why Pinson pulled it off — incumbency, a nonpartisan race, the fact that the court wasn’t up for grabs, and good old-fashioned money — and it’s likely a combination of all these factors that led to his win.

Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Some statewide race projections from the Beaver State

Further down the ballot, Oregon voters also selected their party nominees for secretary of state and attorney general. Just a few minutes after polls closed (shoutout vote-by-mail!), ABC News reported that state Treasurer Tobias Read is projected to win the Democratic primary for secretary of state, the state's second-highest office. Read, who currently leads with 71 percent of the vote, had the establishment support and fundraising lead over state Sen. James Manning, who is in second place with 20 percent.

In April, Bolts Magazine wrote about this race as a test for different views on democracy and voting rights: Manning campaigned on a more progressive vision, including allowing incarcerated people to vote, while Read said he would prioritize fine-tuning the state's existing systems, including universal mail voting.

Oregon tends to elect Democrats statewide, so Read is probably the favorite to win in November over state Sen. Dennis Linthicum, the far-right Republican nominee who campaigned on ending vote-by-mail and was barred from running for reelection in the state Senate after he and other Republican lawmakers participated in a six-week quorum-denying protest over issues abortion, gun control and transgender health care.

ABC News also reports that state Rep. Dan Rayfield, who was state House Speaker for two years, is projected to be the Democratic nominee for attorney general. He'll face former prosecutor Will Lathrop in November in a race to succeed outgoing Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum, who is stepping down after 12 years in office.

—Irena Li, 538