Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Fulton’s blueness helps Willis and McAfee
That’s right, Mary. Willis will now move on to a general election against Republican Courtney Kramer that she is heavily favored to win: Biden carried Fulton County 73 percent to 26 percent in 2020. And for McAfee, this was the general election; judicial elections in Georgia are nonpartisan, so all candidates run on the same initial ballot, and there’s only a second round of voting if no one gets a majority.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Republican ideological divide plays out in Kentucky state legislature primaries
In the downballot races for the Kentucky legislature, Republicans aligned with the "liberty" wing of the party are taking on more establishment Republicans. Some of these conservatives are recent incumbents who won seats last cycle, while others are newcomers this year, but in general they take a harder line against government spending than what they call "establishment" Republicans.
Many in the liberty wing are endorsed by national PACs like Americans for Prosperity, and PACs backing "school choice" measures that would allow tax dollars to go to private schools. Battling over support for public schools has divided the party in other states, like Texas, and I've written about the universal school voucher movement's gains over the past two years.
Some swing state Republican Parties have also torn themselves apart over even the tiniest ideological differences in swing states around the country. Battles like those in Kentucky will help shape the general election to come, and could determine the direction the party takes in governing should it win big in November.
—Monica Potts, 538
I'm not surprised to see Willis and McAfee walking away with it
That sounds about right, Nathaniel. According to a YouGov/CBS News poll in March, only 27 percent of Georgia voters thought there was "widespread voter fraud and irregularities" in the 2020 election in the state. When asked which concerns them more, that "Donald Trump tried to overturn a presidential election" or that "the charges and indictments against Donald Trump are politically motivated," likely Georgia voters were split 36-43, respectively (21 percent said both were equally concerning).
So with relatively friendly polling statewide, I'm not surprised to see the officials overseeing the case do well in more Democrat-friendly Fulton County.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Pinson is doing well in Atlanta suburbs, a signal that he may stick around on the state Supreme Court
In the only contested state Supreme Court race tonight in Georgia, the incumbent Justice Andrew Pinson (the Republican pick) is currently leading former Democratic Rep. John Barrow. With 23 percent of the expected votes in, Pinson leads 54 percent to 46 percent. And while the county-level results are largely breaking the way we'd expect, Pinson is picking up the lead in some unexpected parts of the Atlanta suburbs. As Nathaniel pointed out on X, Pinson leads in Douglas County, which went for Biden 62–37 percent in 2020, as well as Gwinnett County—which Biden carried 58–40 percent in 2020. He's leading, too, in Henry County, which Biden won with 60 percent of the vote in 2020, and currently (narrowly) ahead in Clayton County, which went for Biden 85-14 percent! It could be that these suburban voters are happy with the status quo, or agreed with Pinson's characterization that Barrow was "politicizing" this non-partisan race by focusing so intently on the issue of abortion, but whatever the reason, Pinson is probably happy to see these early numbers.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
That’s a wrap!
With all of tonight's key races now projected, it's time for us to hit the hay. Here's a recap of who won today:
- Despite trying to ride the wave of voter activation over abortion, former Democratic Rep. John Barrow failed to unseat Republican-appointed Justice Andrew Pinson in the only contested race for Georgia Supreme Court today.
- Challenges to a pair of major figures in Trump's Georgia election-interference case also went nowhere. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis easily won her Democratic primary, and Judge Scott McAfee won his judicial election against a self-described "conservative Democrat."
- The Republican primary in Georgia's 3rd District is going to a June 18 runoff between longtime Trump staffer Brian Jack and former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan.
- In Georgia's 13th District, incumbent Rep. David Scott prevailed over his six challengers to win his Democratic primary and will go on to seek reelection in November. Scott's challengers tried to focus on his age and health as an issue, echoing criticisms facing the Democrats and President Joe Biden in November, but incumbency proved too powerful an advantage.
- Out west, the DCCC got their candidate in Oregon's 5th District, as state Rep. Janelle Bynum easily dispatched attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who lost in 2022 in this seat against Republican Rep Lori Chavez-DeRemer. Bynum will face off against Chavez-DeRemer this November.
- In Oregon's 3rd District, state Rep. Maxine Dexter benefited from a plethora of outside spending to defeat former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal in the Democratic primary, all-but-ensuring that Dexter will be this dark-blue seat's next representative.
- Republican Mike Erickson will get a third shot at winning a House seat as he cruised to victory in the GOP primary for Oregon's 6th District. At times, Erickson seems more focused on winning a defamation case against Rep. Andrea Salinas regarding an ad she aired last cycle against him than he does on beating her in an election.
- In Idaho's 2nd District, incumbent Republican Mike Simpson is poised to win his primary and likely reelection this fall. With more than 60 percent of the votes counted, he leads his closest challenger, investment adviser Scott Cleveland, 57 percent to 34 percent. (Scott Cleveland is a great quarterback name, now that this politics thing doesn't seem to be working out.)
- In the special election in California's 20th District (former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's old seat), Assemblyman Vince Fong defeated fellow Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux. As a result, Speaker Mike Johnson will soon get an extra vote in the House.
—Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Geoffrey Skelley, 538; Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections