Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives
Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.
On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.
As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Answer: Abortion wasn’t really on the ballot, despite Barrow’s attempts to make it so
Since control of the Georgia Supreme Court wasn’t up for grabs, it’s hard to see one seat’s election as a real referendum on abortion. Add in the fact that Barrow’s attacks on Pinson kind of fell flat — yes, Pinson previously defended the state’s abortion ban, but as solicitor general, it was his job to defend the law against a legal challenge — and it just wasn’t enough to galvanize voters.
—Kaleigh Rogers, 538
Answer: Incumbency advantage
The incumbency advantage probably played a role here. And awareness about this race was probably low, even as Barrow tried to elevate it and tie it to a consequential issue, like abortion. I agree with Cooper that perhaps the stakes weren't high enough.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Answer: Abortion is a little different in Georgia
In addition to what Geoffrey and Cooper said, I’d also echo what Mary said about abortion polling in the state in an earlier post. Abortion is just a little less important to Georgia voters than it is nationally. That said, none of this means abortion won’t matter to voters in November. And as we’ve seen time and time again, the issue tends to give Democrats an edge.
—Monica Potts, 538
Answer: Part of the issue may simply be money
According to AdImpact, a lot less money was spent in support of Barrow than of Pinson.
But I'm actually struck by how little money was spent in this race at all! Just over 3 million dollars was spent in 2024 in support of either candidate, which is far less than we usually see for a high profile, competitive statewide election. This may have just flown under voters' radar in general, and having Pinson marked as the incumbent on the ballot may have also been enough to put him over the top.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Two challengers are neck-and-neck in a Kentucky state Senate seat
In a Kentucky state Senate seat, it looks like an incumbent, state Sen. Adrienne Southworth, may be unseated by one of her two challengers, both former Navy SEALS. Aaron Reed is at 39 percent, and the other challenger, Ed Gallrein, is at 38 percent, with more than 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, while Southworth is at 22 percent.
Southworth, who represents the district just east of Louisville, was weakened by fights against her own party, largely stemming from her spreading election fraud conspiracy theories. But there's also little ideological daylight between Reed and Gallrein, and one political observer, Teri Carter, wrote that it largely seemed like a competition to wear the biggest cowboy hat. Control of the state Senate isn't at stake because Republicans have a supermajority in the legislature, but battles like this one could make a difference for issues like whether school vouchers can be used to pay for private schools in the state.
—Monica Potts, 538