The incumbency advantage probably played a role here. And awareness about this race was probably low, even as Barrow tried to elevate it and tie it to a consequential issue, like abortion. I agree with Cooper that perhaps the stakes weren't high enough.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

In addition to what Geoffrey and Cooper said, I’d also echo what Mary said about abortion polling in the state in an earlier post. Abortion is just a little less important to Georgia voters than it is nationally. That said, none of this means abortion won’t matter to voters in November. And as we’ve seen time and time again, the issue tends to give Democrats an edge.

—Monica Potts, 538

According to AdImpact, a lot less money was spent in support of Barrow than of Pinson.

But I'm actually struck by how little money was spent in this race at all! Just over 3 million dollars was spent in 2024 in support of either candidate, which is far less than we usually see for a high profile, competitive statewide election. This may have just flown under voters' radar in general, and having Pinson marked as the incumbent on the ballot may have also been enough to put him over the top.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

It’s interesting, Nathaniel: Abortion ranked as the third-most important issue in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll of Georgia. And 64 percent of respondents to that poll said they thought abortion should be always or mostly legal. But perhaps voters today didn’t see their vote as having much of an impact; after all, regardless of the outcome of this race, conservatives will still dominate the state Supreme Court, where eight of the nine justices were appointed by Republicans.

—Cooper Burton, 538

In a Kentucky state Senate seat, it looks like an incumbent, state Sen. Adrienne Southworth, may be unseated by one of her two challengers, both former Navy SEALS. Aaron Reed is at 39 percent, and the other challenger, Ed Gallrein, is at 38 percent, with more than 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, while Southworth is at 22 percent.

Southworth, who represents the district just east of Louisville, was weakened by fights against her own party, largely stemming from her spreading election fraud conspiracy theories. But there's also little ideological daylight between Reed and Gallrein, and one political observer, Teri Carter, wrote that it largely seemed like a competition to wear the biggest cowboy hat. Control of the state Senate isn't at stake because Republicans have a supermajority in the legislature, but battles like this one could make a difference for issues like whether school vouchers can be used to pay for private schools in the state.

—Monica Potts, 538