Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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McBath projected to win her primary

McBath is projected to win her primary in Georgia's 6th District, according to The Associated Press. She is likely to win reelection in November, in this safely blue (and recently redrawn) seat.

—Monica Potts, 538


Fulton’s blueness helps Willis and McAfee

That’s right, Mary. Willis will now move on to a general election against Republican Courtney Kramer that she is heavily favored to win: Biden carried Fulton County 73 percent to 26 percent in 2020. And for McAfee, this was the general election; judicial elections in Georgia are nonpartisan, so all candidates run on the same initial ballot, and there’s only a second round of voting if no one gets a majority.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Republican ideological divide plays out in Kentucky state legislature primaries

In the downballot races for the Kentucky legislature, Republicans aligned with the "liberty" wing of the party are taking on more establishment Republicans. Some of these conservatives are recent incumbents who won seats last cycle, while others are newcomers this year, but in general they take a harder line against government spending than what they call "establishment" Republicans.

Many in the liberty wing are endorsed by national PACs like Americans for Prosperity, and PACs backing "school choice" measures that would allow tax dollars to go to private schools. Battling over support for public schools has divided the party in other states, like Texas, and I've written about the universal school voucher movement's gains over the past two years.

Some swing state Republican Parties have also torn themselves apart over even the tiniest ideological differences in swing states around the country. Battles like those in Kentucky will help shape the general election to come, and could determine the direction the party takes in governing should it win big in November.

—Monica Potts, 538


I'm not surprised to see Willis and McAfee walking away with it

That sounds about right, Nathaniel. According to a YouGov/CBS News poll in March, only 27 percent of Georgia voters thought there was "widespread voter fraud and irregularities" in the 2020 election in the state. When asked which concerns them more, that "Donald Trump tried to overturn a presidential election" or that "the charges and indictments against Donald Trump are politically motivated," likely Georgia voters were split 36-43, respectively (21 percent said both were equally concerning).

So with relatively friendly polling statewide, I'm not surprised to see the officials overseeing the case do well in more Democrat-friendly Fulton County.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Two challengers are neck-and-neck in a Kentucky state Senate seat

In a Kentucky state Senate seat, it looks like an incumbent, state Sen. Adrienne Southworth, may be unseated by one of her two challengers, both former Navy SEALS. Aaron Reed is at 39 percent, and the other challenger, Ed Gallrein, is at 38 percent, with more than 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, while Southworth is at 22 percent.

Southworth, who represents the district just east of Louisville, was weakened by fights against her own party, largely stemming from her spreading election fraud conspiracy theories. But there's also little ideological daylight between Reed and Gallrein, and one political observer, Teri Carter, wrote that it largely seemed like a competition to wear the biggest cowboy hat. Control of the state Senate isn't at stake because Republicans have a supermajority in the legislature, but battles like this one could make a difference for issues like whether school vouchers can be used to pay for private schools in the state.

—Monica Potts, 538