Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Dexter projected to win in Oregon's 3rd District

Well, that wasn't as interesting as we expected. ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Maxine Dexter is projected to win the Democratic primary in Oregon's solidly blue 3rd District. With 45 percent of the expected vote reporting, Dexter leads Jayapal 53 percent to 25 percent. This result prevents some history: Had Jayapal won this race and gone on to win the general election, she and her sister Pramila Jayapal (a representative from Washington state) would've been the first sisters to serve in Congress at the same time while representing different states. In November, Dexter will almost certainly win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Earl Blumenauer in the Portland-based seat.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Simpson seems strong

We've got a little bit of the vote counted counted in Idaho's 1st District, and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson is in command with 58 percent of the vote, a 25-point lead over challenger Scott Cleveland, per the AP. Simpson beat back a stronger primary opponent last cycle and looks like he'll be back again next year.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Bynum projected to win in Oregon's 5th District

ABC News is reporting that state Rep. Janelle Bynum is projected to win the Democratic primary in Oregon's 5th District over attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner. With 49 percent of the expected vote reporting, Bynum leads 70 percent to 30 percent. This is a win for the DCCC, which backed Bynum in the primary in the hopes that she'd be a stronger bet for the party than McLeod-Skinner, who lost the 2022 general election to Chavez-DeRemer.

Notably, when McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the 2022 Democratic primary here, she did so by holding down Schrader's margins in Clackamas County outside Portland and running up big margins in Deschutes County and the small part of Multnomah in the district. But tonight, Bynum leads by substantial margins in every part of the district.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Fong projected to win in California’s 20th

And that’s that: ABC News reports that Fong is projected to win the special election in California’s 20th District. He’s expected to be sworn into the House soon, giving Johnson a crucial additional Republican vote. Once he is sworn in, the House will stand at 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats, meaning Johnson can afford two Republican defections on party-line votes and still win.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Welcome!

It's primary day in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky! We've got a break from Senate contests tonight — none of these states have U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 — but we'll be closely tracking U.S. House primary action and some other key races. Here's a quick roadmap of what to expect throughout the evening.

Kentucky has the earliest poll closing time tonight (6 p.m. Eastern in the eastern part of the state, 7 p.m. Eastern in the western part), but also probably the sleepiest races, with no seriously competitive House contests. We'll see more action in Georgia, where polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern and we're tracking a competitive open-seat GOP primary and a challenge to an aging Democratic incumbent. Plus, a competitive state Supreme Court race could tell us something about how much abortion is motivating voters in a key swing state.

After that, you may want to take a dinner break or, perhaps, watch Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference finals. The next polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern in (most of) Idaho, where incumbent centrist Republican Rep. Mike Simpson is fending off a conservative challenger. Finally, (most of) Oregon's polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern; a couple of primaries there have seen big spending from controversial sources.

As a bonus nightcap, a special election runoff in California will have an immediate impact on House majority math as voters fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's old seat, which has been empty since the start of the year. Polls close there at 11 p.m. Eastern as well.
—Tia Yang, 538