Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Reexamining conventional campaign wisdom

Here's something to do while waiting on those results ...

When it comes to winning elections, is it really, "the economy, stupid?" Are "soccer moms" the quintessential swing voter? And does it matter which candidate you'd rather share a beer with? Every election cycle, cliches come easy. But are they right?

That's what we try to get to the bottom of in our new mini-series on the 538 Politics podcast, "Campaign Throwback." In the first installment we interrogate the role that the economy plays in electoral outcomes, in the second we ask how suburban women came to be viewed as swing voters and whether that is the case today. In our final installment, which will come out tomorrow morning, we look at the "beer question." Starting in the 2000s, pollsters and pundits began speculating that voters are drawn to the candidate they'd rather have a beer with. We go back and look at the data to try to determine if that's actually how Americans choose their presidents.

So while you wait for that last set of polls to close, take some time to catch up on the latest "Campaign Throwback" episodes in the podcast feed, and tune back in tomorrow morning for our final installment!

—Galen Druke, 538


Mainstream Republicans are trying to take their party back in Idaho

Perhaps the most interesting elections today in Idaho — where the first polls have just closed — are for the obscure position of precinct committeeman for the local GOP. As Monica has written, many state Republican parties are at war with themselves, and that’s the case in Idaho as well: Two traditionalist GOP groups, North Idaho Republicans and Gem State Conservatives, are trying to win as many precinct committeemen posts as possible in order to wrest control away from the party’s right wing, some of whom have ties to white nationalists.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Scott has prevailed in his primary in Georgia's 13th Congressional District

Incumbent Democratic Rep. Scott has won his primary against 6 challengers, according to The Associated Press. He is likely to win reelection in this safe blue seat outside of Atlanta in November.

—Monica Potts, 538


Polls are now closed in southern Idaho and part of Oregon

It’s 10 p.m. Eastern, which means that polls are now closed in most of Idaho (the southern, most populous part) as well as in a sliver of eastern Oregon (however, the vast vast majority of Oregon won’t be done voting until 11 p.m. Eastern).

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Welcome!

It's primary day in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky! We've got a break from Senate contests tonight — none of these states have U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 — but we'll be closely tracking U.S. House primary action and some other key races. Here's a quick roadmap of what to expect throughout the evening.

Kentucky has the earliest poll closing time tonight (6 p.m. Eastern in the eastern part of the state, 7 p.m. Eastern in the western part), but also probably the sleepiest races, with no seriously competitive House contests. We'll see more action in Georgia, where polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern and we're tracking a competitive open-seat GOP primary and a challenge to an aging Democratic incumbent. Plus, a competitive state Supreme Court race could tell us something about how much abortion is motivating voters in a key swing state.

After that, you may want to take a dinner break or, perhaps, watch Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference finals. The next polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern in (most of) Idaho, where incumbent centrist Republican Rep. Mike Simpson is fending off a conservative challenger. Finally, (most of) Oregon's polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern; a couple of primaries there have seen big spending from controversial sources.

As a bonus nightcap, a special election runoff in California will have an immediate impact on House majority math as voters fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's old seat, which has been empty since the start of the year. Polls close there at 11 p.m. Eastern as well.
—Tia Yang, 538