Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

Georgia voters look a little more conservative on abortion than the country

Monica mentioned earlier that anti-abortion candidates in Georgia Republican primaries are doing fairly well, and I can't say I'm surprised. In an April survey by Morning Consult/Bloomberg, 70 percent of Georgia voters said that abortion would be "very important" or "somewhat important" to their vote for U.S. president, a bit less than the 76 percent of swing state voters overall. But when asked which presidential candidate they trust more to handle the issue of abortion, 41 percent said Biden and 37 percent said Trump, a narrower gap than we've seen in national polling that tends to favor Biden.

And of course, in a Republican primary the issue may be even less salient in the state. Just 37 percent of Republican voters in the state told the pollsters that the issue was very important, compared to 61 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of independents.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Can Jack avoid a runoff in Georgia’s 3rd?

We’re up to 40 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican primary for Georgia’s 3rd District, according to the AP, and Jack is up to 47 percent of the vote. If he can clear the majority threshold, he’ll avoid a June 18 runoff — and he’s trending in the right direction.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Anti-Biden protest votes in Kentucky

Last week, we saw a fair amount of protest voting against Biden in the Democratic presidential primary in West Virginia’s coal country — an ancestrally Democratic area that still has a lot of voters registered with the party, but they’re much more conservative nowadays. Well, the same thing is happening in Kentucky’s coal country just over the border: For example, in Pike County, Biden is beating “Uncommitted” just 44 percent to 36 percent. Statewide, Biden has just 71 percent of the vote, which would be among his worst showings in the nation.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Meanwhile, in DeKalb County, it’s incumbent vs incumbent

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Two popular, incumbent Democrats in neighboring districts are suddenly forced to challenge one another in a primary when new, Republican-drawn maps toss them into the same district during the redistricting process. State Reps. Saira Draper and Becky Evans are in just such a pickle tonight as they vie for the Democratic nomination in Georgia's 90th District in DeKalb County. Evans, a former political aide and media production manager, was first elected in 2018, while Draper, an attorney and voting rights activist, won her seat in 2022. However, Evans has represents about 30 percent of the new district, making Draper a de facto incumbent of the two incumbents. With 46 percent of the vote reporting, Draper is leading 64 percent to Evans's 36 percent. Whoever wins tonight will be running unopposed in this deep blue district.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538


Welcome!

It's primary day in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky! We've got a break from Senate contests tonight — none of these states have U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 — but we'll be closely tracking U.S. House primary action and some other key races. Here's a quick roadmap of what to expect throughout the evening.

Kentucky has the earliest poll closing time tonight (6 p.m. Eastern in the eastern part of the state, 7 p.m. Eastern in the western part), but also probably the sleepiest races, with no seriously competitive House contests. We'll see more action in Georgia, where polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern and we're tracking a competitive open-seat GOP primary and a challenge to an aging Democratic incumbent. Plus, a competitive state Supreme Court race could tell us something about how much abortion is motivating voters in a key swing state.

After that, you may want to take a dinner break or, perhaps, watch Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference finals. The next polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern in (most of) Idaho, where incumbent centrist Republican Rep. Mike Simpson is fending off a conservative challenger. Finally, (most of) Oregon's polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern; a couple of primaries there have seen big spending from controversial sources.

As a bonus nightcap, a special election runoff in California will have an immediate impact on House majority math as voters fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's old seat, which has been empty since the start of the year. Polls close there at 11 p.m. Eastern as well.
—Tia Yang, 538