Georgia, Oregon, Idaho and Kentucky primaries 2024: Willis, McAfee win; tough night for progressives

Abortion didn’t help liberals flip a Georgia Supreme Court seat.

On May 21, voters in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Kentucky and California held key elections for Congress and nationally watched local races. Two key figures from one of Trump’s legal cases, Fani Willis and Scott McAfee, easily won their races, while conservatives won a Georgia Supreme Court election fought largely over abortion. In the House, progressives lost two key races in Oregon, while California voters picked a successor to Kevin McCarthy.

As usual, 538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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The lesson out of Oregon

Based on the blowouts in Oregon’s 3rd and 5th District Democratic primaries, is the lesson here just “big spending works”?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


More results in Oregon's 4th District

With 55 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for Oregon's 4th District, DeSpain's lead has increased over former Keizer city councilmember, Amy Ryan Courser. It now stands at 58 percent to 41 percent, respectively.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Progressive Portland DA badly trailing his more conservative challenger

In the Multnomah County District Attorney race, incumbent Mike Schmidt is trailing challenger Nathan Vasquez, 42 percent to 58 percent, with about half the expected votes reporting, according to the New York Times. Multnomah County is the most populous county in Oregon, and includes the city of Portland.

In an April survey, Portland area residents told DHM Research/The Oregonian that the two biggest concerns in their area were homelessness (53 percent) and crime (20 percent), two issues where the DA might make a difference. Respondents were particularly supportive of cracking down on homeless encampments: 63 percent said that "local governments should be allowed to ban people from camping in public spaces and fine or arrest anyone who refuses to leave," while just 27 percent disagreed.

Vasquez has blamed Schmidt and his policies for the rise in homelessness, drug use and crime in the area. And it looks like that approach may be working for him. He's off to a solid lead, and as this is a nonpartisan election, whoever wins tonight will take over the office.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Some statewide race projections from the Beaver State

Further down the ballot, Oregon voters also selected their party nominees for secretary of state and attorney general. Just a few minutes after polls closed (shoutout vote-by-mail!), ABC News reported that state Treasurer Tobias Read is projected to win the Democratic primary for secretary of state, the state's second-highest office. Read, who currently leads with 71 percent of the vote, had the establishment support and fundraising lead over state Sen. James Manning, who is in second place with 20 percent.

In April, Bolts Magazine wrote about this race as a test for different views on democracy and voting rights: Manning campaigned on a more progressive vision, including allowing incarcerated people to vote, while Read said he would prioritize fine-tuning the state's existing systems, including universal mail voting.

Oregon tends to elect Democrats statewide, so Read is probably the favorite to win in November over state Sen. Dennis Linthicum, the far-right Republican nominee who campaigned on ending vote-by-mail and was barred from running for reelection in the state Senate after he and other Republican lawmakers participated in a six-week quorum-denying protest over issues abortion, gun control and transgender health care.

ABC News also reports that state Rep. Dan Rayfield, who was state House Speaker for two years, is projected to be the Democratic nominee for attorney general. He'll face former prosecutor Will Lathrop in November in a race to succeed outgoing Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum, who is stepping down after 12 years in office.

—Irena Li, 538


Welcome!

It's primary day in Georgia, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky! We've got a break from Senate contests tonight — none of these states have U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 — but we'll be closely tracking U.S. House primary action and some other key races. Here's a quick roadmap of what to expect throughout the evening.

Kentucky has the earliest poll closing time tonight (6 p.m. Eastern in the eastern part of the state, 7 p.m. Eastern in the western part), but also probably the sleepiest races, with no seriously competitive House contests. We'll see more action in Georgia, where polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern and we're tracking a competitive open-seat GOP primary and a challenge to an aging Democratic incumbent. Plus, a competitive state Supreme Court race could tell us something about how much abortion is motivating voters in a key swing state.

After that, you may want to take a dinner break or, perhaps, watch Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference finals. The next polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern in (most of) Idaho, where incumbent centrist Republican Rep. Mike Simpson is fending off a conservative challenger. Finally, (most of) Oregon's polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern; a couple of primaries there have seen big spending from controversial sources.

As a bonus nightcap, a special election runoff in California will have an immediate impact on House majority math as voters fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's old seat, which has been empty since the start of the year. Polls close there at 11 p.m. Eastern as well.
—Tia Yang, 538