Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary
538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Welcome!
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have both clinched their respective nominations in the presidential race, but primary season is just getting started. The biggest state to watch tonight is in Ohio, where a closely contested GOP primary will decide which Republican faces off against Sen. Sherrod Brown in one of this fall’s biggest Senate races. Trump-endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno seems to have an edge in that contest over state Sen. Matt Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Trump-aligned Republicans will be pulling for Moreno today — but so might Democrats, who see Moreno as an easier target to defeat in November.
Which wing of the GOP comes out ahead seems to be the theme of the day throughout the Buckeye State, where we’re also tracking a slew of competitive Republican primaries for U.S. House. Meanwhile, two incumbents in Illinois — Democratic Rep. Danny Davis and Republican Rep. Mike Bost — are looking to stave off tough primary challenges, while California will host a Super Tuesday rematch in a special election to decide who will fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat in the House for the remainder of this year.
As for timing, we should start to see results come in shortly after polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern in Ohio and 8 p.m. Eastern in Illinois. As always, 538 analysts will be here bringing you the latest results and analysis throughout the evening. Thanks for joining us!
—Tia Yang, 538
A crowded primary in Ohio’s 2nd District
One under-the-radar race today is the Republican primary in Ohio’s 2nd District, which is tantamount to that seat’s general election given how red this seat is. Eleven Republicans are vying to replace retiring Rep. Brad Wenstrup, but three businessmen have used their wallets to stand out from the crowd. Concrete business owner David Taylor has loaned his own campaign $1.7 million, while Larry Kidd, who owns a hiring agency, has invested $1.3 million in the race. Meanwhile, Dunkin’ Donuts and LaRosa’s Pizzeria franchisee Tim O’Hara has spun up the third-most dough after self-funding $1.2 million.
Two state legislators are also running. State Sen. Niraj Antani has raised a respectable $671,000, but his district doesn’t overlap at all with the 2nd District, according to Daily Kos. State Sen. Shane Wilkin, by contrast, already represents 33 percent of the 2nd District, but he has raised only $146,000. If we had to pick a favorite here, it would probably be Taylor given that he has the most money and he’s the only major candidate from Clermont County, by far the most vote-rich county in the district. There are no runoffs in Ohio, so whoever finishes first in the primary will become the nominee even if they win just a bare plurality.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538