Pretty much nothing that happens tonight will alter the view that the GOP is unmistakably Trump's party. Even if a Trump endorsee were to lose, the party is clearly behind Trump and most Republican candidates have aligned themselves with him. That's the recipe to generally appeal to GOP voters. It's true that Dolan could conceivably win the Republican Senate primary in Ohio, but if he does, it'll likely be with a small plurality around 40 percent. The majority of the party will be with the Trump-endorsed candidate (Moreno) or the one who has more closely aligned himself with Trump (LaRose) in what looks to have been a failed effort to win the primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I've been keeping a close eye on Trump's Truth Social account, and one thing I noticed this time around is that his endorsement of Merrin in Ohio's 9th came fairly late in the game. He endorsed Moreno on December 19, but he didn't issue an endorsement in the 9th until yesterday afternoon!

Now, there may be reasons Trump waited to make an endorsement in the race. A key Trump ally in the state, Rep. Jim Jordan, had already endorsed Riedel, so maybe Trump was trying not to get on his bad side. But the fact that he waited so long will almost certainly diminish the impact of the endorsement with voters.

When it comes to the Senate race, Tia, the fact that it's as close as it appears to be even given Trump's endorsement may already tell us something about his impact in these sorts of races. The non-MAGA establishment obviously still holds significant sway among voters, at least in Ohio.

All that is a long-winded way of saying that I'm not sure Trump is showing much strength with his Ohio endorsements. The races are very close, so whatever he's doing hasn't seemed to impact the electorate as much as he would probably hope to.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

The result in Ohio's Senate primary is probably the most germane to Trump's influence in the party (or at least among the primary electorate) because Dolan alone has sometimes distanced himself from Trump. Now, he's decidedly less Trump-skeptical this time around than he was in 2022, but he's still the closest thing to a more pre-Trump traditional politician in any of these races. Moreno, meanwhile, was an also-ran until Trump picked him as his champion. (He flunked out of the 2022 race despite self-funding.) If Trump can push him to a win like he did J.D. Vance two years ago, that's a sign of strength. In the other contests, I'm not sure there's much to be gleaned. Mike Bost and Darren Bailey are both running very Trump-heavy campaigns. Bailey wasn't endorsed by Trump, but still features him in his ads! Not sure it says much if that's a winning message. And in Ohio's 9th, Merrin may have the endorsement, but Riedel has been working overtime to show his loyalty after those embarrassing clips leaked. Plus, Merrin's only had the endorsement for a few days, and it hasn't featured in any TV ads in the race.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

We've been talking about the fact that many of tonight's key races pit Trump-aligned Republicans against more establishment Republicans, or even against each other to win Trump's favor. What can the outcome in Ohio's Senate race (where all eyes are on Trump endorsee Moreno) or any of these other races tell us anything about Trump's influence, or the Trumpiness of the GOP heading into the rest of election season?

—Tia Yang, 538

Cooper, I wonder how much the potential threat of limiting abortion access in Ohio could impact that Supreme Court race. In 2023, voters in the state passed a constitutional amendment protecting abortion access. In a sign that abortion may continue to be an issue that divides Republican-leaning voters, a November Emerson College/WJW-TV/Nexstar survey conducted just after that election asked registered Ohio voters how they voted on the abortion measure and how they plan to vote in November this year.

Twenty-six percent of those who voted to pass the abortion rights measure said they plan to vote for Donald Trump, suggesting that a fair number of Republican or Republican-leaning voters supported it. (In comparison, just 10 percent of those who voted against the measure said they planned to vote for Joe Biden.) Abortion also seemed to drive turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in last November's election: Among those that said they voted on the abortion referendum (either for or against), 41 percent said they'd vote for Biden, while only 28 percent of those who didn't vote supported Biden. (About half of both 2023 voters and nonvoters supported Trump.)

So if the issue of abortion becomes salient in the state Supreme Court race, there could be a close race coming our way in November.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538