Pretty much nothing that happens tonight will alter the view that the GOP is unmistakably Trump's party. Even if a Trump endorsee were to lose, the party is clearly behind Trump and most Republican candidates have aligned themselves with him. That's the recipe to generally appeal to GOP voters. It's true that Dolan could conceivably win the Republican Senate primary in Ohio, but if he does, it'll likely be with a small plurality around 40 percent. The majority of the party will be with the Trump-endorsed candidate (Moreno) or the one who has more closely aligned himself with Trump (LaRose) in what looks to have been a failed effort to win the primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I've been keeping a close eye on Trump's Truth Social account, and one thing I noticed this time around is that his endorsement of Merrin in Ohio's 9th came fairly late in the game. He endorsed Moreno on December 19, but he didn't issue an endorsement in the 9th until yesterday afternoon!

Now, there may be reasons Trump waited to make an endorsement in the race. A key Trump ally in the state, Rep. Jim Jordan, had already endorsed Riedel, so maybe Trump was trying not to get on his bad side. But the fact that he waited so long will almost certainly diminish the impact of the endorsement with voters.

When it comes to the Senate race, Tia, the fact that it's as close as it appears to be even given Trump's endorsement may already tell us something about his impact in these sorts of races. The non-MAGA establishment obviously still holds significant sway among voters, at least in Ohio.

All that is a long-winded way of saying that I'm not sure Trump is showing much strength with his Ohio endorsements. The races are very close, so whatever he's doing hasn't seemed to impact the electorate as much as he would probably hope to.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

The result in Ohio's Senate primary is probably the most germane to Trump's influence in the party (or at least among the primary electorate) because Dolan alone has sometimes distanced himself from Trump. Now, he's decidedly less Trump-skeptical this time around than he was in 2022, but he's still the closest thing to a more pre-Trump traditional politician in any of these races. Moreno, meanwhile, was an also-ran until Trump picked him as his champion. (He flunked out of the 2022 race despite self-funding.) If Trump can push him to a win like he did J.D. Vance two years ago, that's a sign of strength. In the other contests, I'm not sure there's much to be gleaned. Mike Bost and Darren Bailey are both running very Trump-heavy campaigns. Bailey wasn't endorsed by Trump, but still features him in his ads! Not sure it says much if that's a winning message. And in Ohio's 9th, Merrin may have the endorsement, but Riedel has been working overtime to show his loyalty after those embarrassing clips leaked. Plus, Merrin's only had the endorsement for a few days, and it hasn't featured in any TV ads in the race.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

We've been talking about the fact that many of tonight's key races pit Trump-aligned Republicans against more establishment Republicans, or even against each other to win Trump's favor. What can the outcome in Ohio's Senate race (where all eyes are on Trump endorsee Moreno) or any of these other races tell us anything about Trump's influence, or the Trumpiness of the GOP heading into the rest of election season?

—Tia Yang, 538

It’s midnight Eastern, and all but one of our key races have been projected in Ohio and Illinois. Here’s a recap of where things stand in those races:

- Former President Donald Trump once again flexed his muscles in the Ohio Senate race, elevating former car salesman Bernie Moreno from a 2022 also-ran to the GOP nominee in one of the two top Senate races on the map, beating an uber-rich state senator and a two-time statewide officeholder in the process. But Moreno’s toughest path lies ahead, against well-funded incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. With 96 percent of the expected vote reporting, Moreno leads with 51 percent of the vote over state Sen. Matt Dolan’s 33 percent and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose’s 17 percent.

- In Ohio's 9th District, the conservative backed by Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, state Rep. Derek Merrin, is projected to win, and ready to take on Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in what could be a tough general election race. With 80 percent of the expected vote reporting, Merrin has won 52 percent of the vote, 18 percentage points ahead of his nearest competition.

- In Ohio’s 13th District, another potentially competitive Democratic-held seat, former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin advanced out of the GOP primary rather easily and will take on Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes in November. With 80 percent of the expected vote in, Coughlin leads with 65 percent of the vote so far over businessman Chris Banweg’s 28 percent and Richard Morckel’s 7 percent.

- The Republican Main Street Partnership notched a win against its rivals in the House Freedom Caucus in Ohio’s 6th District, where state Sen. Michael Rulli is projected to beat state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus. Rulli currently leads by 9 points with 83 percent of the expected vote reporting in the regular primary, and by 8 points with 82 percent of the expected vote in the special election. Rulli will face a nominal challenge from Democrat Michael Kripchak on June 11 in the special election to replace Rep. Bill Johnson.

- In another safe GOP seat, Ohio’s 2nd District Republican primary went for business owner David Taylor, who won a crowded race that was tantamount to election in November. With 95 percent of the expected vote reporting, Taylor leads with 25 percent of the expected vote over 10 other challengers.

- Despite several challengers lining up to replace Democratic Rep. Danny Davis, the long-time incumbent is likely to hold onto his seat in Illinois’s 7th District. With 76 percent of the expected vote in, Davis leads with 53 percent of the vote so far. In second is Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin with 22 percent, followed by community organizer Kina Collins with 18 percent. Collins was seen as Davis’s primary competition tonight, and her underwhelming performance was part of a tough night for progressives in Chicago.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections; Geoffrey Skelley and Monica Potts, 538