Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary
538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Welcome!
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have both clinched their respective nominations in the presidential race, but primary season is just getting started. The biggest state to watch tonight is in Ohio, where a closely contested GOP primary will decide which Republican faces off against Sen. Sherrod Brown in one of this fall’s biggest Senate races. Trump-endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno seems to have an edge in that contest over state Sen. Matt Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Trump-aligned Republicans will be pulling for Moreno today — but so might Democrats, who see Moreno as an easier target to defeat in November.
Which wing of the GOP comes out ahead seems to be the theme of the day throughout the Buckeye State, where we’re also tracking a slew of competitive Republican primaries for U.S. House. Meanwhile, two incumbents in Illinois — Democratic Rep. Danny Davis and Republican Rep. Mike Bost — are looking to stave off tough primary challenges, while California will host a Super Tuesday rematch in a special election to decide who will fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat in the House for the remainder of this year.
As for timing, we should start to see results come in shortly after polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern in Ohio and 8 p.m. Eastern in Illinois. As always, 538 analysts will be here bringing you the latest results and analysis throughout the evening. Thanks for joining us!
—Tia Yang, 538
Answer: A lot and a little
The result in Ohio's Senate primary is probably the most germane to Trump's influence in the party (or at least among the primary electorate) because Dolan alone has sometimes distanced himself from Trump. Now, he's decidedly less Trump-skeptical this time around than he was in 2022, but he's still the closest thing to a more pre-Trump traditional politician in any of these races. Moreno, meanwhile, was an also-ran until Trump picked him as his champion. (He flunked out of the 2022 race despite self-funding.) If Trump can push him to a win like he did J.D. Vance two years ago, that's a sign of strength. In the other contests, I'm not sure there's much to be gleaned. Mike Bost and Darren Bailey are both running very Trump-heavy campaigns. Bailey wasn't endorsed by Trump, but still features him in his ads! Not sure it says much if that's a winning message. And in Ohio's 9th, Merrin may have the endorsement, but Riedel has been working overtime to show his loyalty after those embarrassing clips leaked. Plus, Merrin's only had the endorsement for a few days, and it hasn't featured in any TV ads in the race.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections