Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary
538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
First Republican women loss of the night
ABC News is projecting a winner in one of the races I'm tracking, Ohio's 14th Congressional District, and it's the incumbent, Joyce, as was expected. He had two challengers to his right, one of which was Cross, who had said she would focus on the nation's immigration policy if elected in an interview with The Tribune Chronicle.
—Monica Potts, 538
First Ohio results
We've got our first votes from Ohio's GOP Senate primary, and it's shaping up to be a close one. With 18 percent of the expected vote reporting, Dolan leads Moreno, 39 percent to 38 percent, while LaRose trails with 23 percent.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Illinois voters are most worried about crime and taxes
While we wait for Illinois results, let's check in on the issues on the minds of voters in the state. In a September Echelon Insights survey conducted for the Illinois Policy Institute, registered Illinois voters were asked what they thought were the biggest two issues facing the state. Topping the list were "crime and public safety," chosen by 47 percent of respondents, and "high taxes," chosen by 45 percent. Concerns about crime spanned the political divide, with 49 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning and 46 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters selecting it. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the same was not true about taxes: This issue was selected by 56 percent of Republican and Republican leaners, but just 37 percent of Democratic and Democratic leaners. (Among the latter group, taxes tied with "housing affordability" as the second most important issue.)
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Polls are now closed in Illinois!
Polls have now closed across Illinois, where we'll be monitoring several U.S. House primaries, as well as a closely-watched referendum in Chicago. Rep. Mike Bost is facing a challenge from his right, while Rep. Danny Davis is facing one from his left.
—Cooper Burton, 538
Big spending in Ohio’s Republican Senate primary
The GOP primary for Senate in Ohio is, by leaps and bounds, the most expensive Republican primary race of the cycle — and the second-most expensive Senate primary overall this year (after California’s Senate contest). The three major Republican candidates and their allies have spent a combined $41.2 million through March 19.
The spending picture has largely been dominated by Dolan and Moreno, with LaRose, who is not personally wealthy like the other two, unable to keep pace. Dolan has spent $10.6 million on advertising while Moreno has spent $8.5 million. LaRose has not spent money on broadcast TV, cable, over-the-top/streaming or digital ads, according to data from AdImpact.
When it comes to outside spending, Dolan’s allies at the super PACs Buckeye Leadership Fund (which is largely funded by Dolan’s family) and Defend Ohio Values have spent $7 million and $1.7 million, respectively, bringing the pro-Dolan total to $19.3 million in spending.
Moreno’s supporters at the Club for Growth ($5.9 million), Buckeye Values PAC ($1.3 million) and Win It Back PAC ($823,000) — plus $3.3 million from a Democratic super PAC boosting Moreno because they believe he’ll be an easier general election opponent for Brown — bring the pro-Moreno squad’s total ad outlay to just under $20 million.
LaRose, who raised just $2.2 million through the end of February, is relying on support from his allied super PAC, Leadership for Ohio. That group has spent $5.4 million to boost his bid.
Ultimately, LaRose’s lack of access to significant personal funds hindered his ability to capitalize on the early name ID and polling advantage he had as a two-time statewide elected official. Dolan donated $9 million to his campaign out of his own pocket, and Moreno put $4.2 million of his own money into his campaign.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections