Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary
538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Republicans put their faith in another rich guy
Moreno’s nomination in Ohio continues a trend of Republicans entrusting their Senate hopes to a coterie of very wealthy men (and one woman, Nella Domenici in New Mexico). In almost every single competitive Senate race, the likely Republican nominee is a politically inexperienced but very wealthy man, each of whom is self-funding to some degree. While Moreno isn’t as wealthy as Tim Sheehy in Montana, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin or Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, he certainly fits the mold. And if Republicans come up short in their efforts to flip the chamber this fall, I think there will be a lot of focus on how the party eschewed candidates with experience winning races in favor of neophytes, especially when Democrats have such strong incumbents.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Checking in on anti-abortion Republican candidates
Of the 29 anti-abortion Republican candidates we're tracking, 15 have been projected to win per ABC News, including 6 incumbents. Twelve challengers are projected to lose their races (though, of course, many were running in the same contests, like the crowded Ohio 2nd District race). In the only race on this list that's not yet projected, Illinois's 12th District, incumbent Mike Bost is leading Darren Bailey — both are on the list. With abortion shaping up to be an important issue in the fall, these candidates have all made pro-life statements without saying abortion should be left to the states. That could signal their willingness to support a national abortion ban, as some Republican and national anti-abortion groups are advocating for.
—Monica Potts, 538
Rulli projected to win
In Ohio’s 6th District, Michael Rulli is projected to defeat Reggie Stoltzfus in the Republican primary, according to ABC News. Rulli currently leads by about 9 percentage points in the regularly scheduled primary and 8 points in the special election primary to succeed Rep. Bill Johnson, with over 80 percent of the expected vote reporting in each. Because the district is solidly Republican, Rulli will likely be the next member of Congress. A special election in a few months will send him to D.C., where he’ll fill out the remainder of Johnson’s term.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
How much is a House seat worth?
And Geoff, it only cost Taylor $1.7 million. Not a bad deal given how much some other self-funders have spent just to come up short. (David Trone dropping $13 million to lose my home district, MD-08, in 2016 comes to mind.)
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Checking in on the Ohio state House races
I mentioned earlier that Merrin had been involved in a speaker fight in Ohio that he lost when another candidate, Stephens, won the backing of Democrats to hold a more moderate speakership. Twenty-two Republicans in the state House joined in voting for Stephens, including Stephens himself, and were dubbed the Blue 22. They were censured by the state party. Of those running again, 12 face primary challengers. By our count, 8 of the Blue 22 running for reelection are currently ahead and 4 are running behind their challengers, according to the Ohio Secretary of State. Stephens is running unopposed, but that could spell doom for his speakership.
—Monica Potts, 538