ABC News has projected Moreno will win the GOP primary for Senate in Ohio, setting up a clash with three-term incumbent Sherrod Brown this fall. Moreno was endorsed by Trump, but also benefitted from spending by a Democratic super PAC that viewed him as a weaker general election opponent than the man he beat, state Sen. Matt Dolan.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Let's check in on how Trump's three endorsed candidates are doing tonight! As it turns out, all three are currently leading their races (though we're just now getting the very first results from Illinois's 12th District, so take that one with a grain or ten of salt).

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

The Associated Press has called the GOP Senate primary in Ohio for Moreno, though ABC News has not yet made a projection. He currently leads with about 42 percent of the vote, and 25 percent of the expected vote reporting.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Cooper, I wonder how much the potential threat of limiting abortion access in Ohio could impact that Supreme Court race. In 2023, voters in the state passed a constitutional amendment protecting abortion access. In a sign that abortion may continue to be an issue that divides Republican-leaning voters, a November Emerson College/WJW-TV/Nexstar survey conducted just after that election asked registered Ohio voters how they voted on the abortion measure and how they plan to vote in November this year.

Twenty-six percent of those who voted to pass the abortion rights measure said they plan to vote for Donald Trump, suggesting that a fair number of Republican or Republican-leaning voters supported it. (In comparison, just 10 percent of those who voted against the measure said they planned to vote for Joe Biden.) Abortion also seemed to drive turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in last November's election: Among those that said they voted on the abortion referendum (either for or against), 41 percent said they'd vote for Biden, while only 28 percent of those who didn't vote supported Biden. (About half of both 2023 voters and nonvoters supported Trump.)

So if the issue of abortion becomes salient in the state Supreme Court race, there could be a close race coming our way in November.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Chicagoans are voting today on a ballot measure pushed by progressives that would institute a real estate transfer tax to fund programs addressing homelessness. Today's outcome could tell us something about the strength of Chicago's progressive movement … and its unpopular progressive mayor, who's made it a policy priority.

According to publicly available polling, while Chicagoans may have started out feeling good about Mayor Brandon Johnson, their opinion quickly soured. According to Chicago-based Victory Research, Johnson's approval when he first took office in May was at 63 percent. Five months later, in October, Echelon Insights/Illinois Policy Institute found his approval to be just 28 percent, with 50 percent of voters disapproving of his job performance. By January, Tulchin Research/Stand for Children registered an approval rating of just 21 percent, with 70 percent saying his performance was "only fair" or "poor," while Echelon Insights/Illinois Policy Institute marked his approval at 29 percent and disapproval at 57 percent.

The January Echelon Insights survey also asked respondents if they approved of Johnson's handling of various issues facing the city. The mayor received the lowest ratings on "housing and homelessness" (20 percent approve, 68 percent disapprove), "management of immigrants transported to the city" (23 percent approve, 69 percent disapprove), and "crime and public safety" (24 percent approve, 66 percent disapprove).

—Mary Radcliffe, 538