Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary
538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
First Republican women loss of the night
ABC News is projecting a winner in one of the races I'm tracking, Ohio's 14th Congressional District, and it's the incumbent, Joyce, as was expected. He had two challengers to his right, one of which was Cross, who had said she would focus on the nation's immigration policy if elected in an interview with The Tribune Chronicle.
—Monica Potts, 538
First Ohio results
We've got our first votes from Ohio's GOP Senate primary, and it's shaping up to be a close one. With 18 percent of the expected vote reporting, Dolan leads Moreno, 39 percent to 38 percent, while LaRose trails with 23 percent.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Illinois voters are most worried about crime and taxes
While we wait for Illinois results, let's check in on the issues on the minds of voters in the state. In a September Echelon Insights survey conducted for the Illinois Policy Institute, registered Illinois voters were asked what they thought were the biggest two issues facing the state. Topping the list were "crime and public safety," chosen by 47 percent of respondents, and "high taxes," chosen by 45 percent. Concerns about crime spanned the political divide, with 49 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning and 46 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters selecting it. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the same was not true about taxes: This issue was selected by 56 percent of Republican and Republican leaners, but just 37 percent of Democratic and Democratic leaners. (Among the latter group, taxes tied with "housing affordability" as the second most important issue.)
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Polls are now closed in Illinois!
Polls have now closed across Illinois, where we'll be monitoring several U.S. House primaries, as well as a closely-watched referendum in Chicago. Rep. Mike Bost is facing a challenge from his right, while Rep. Danny Davis is facing one from his left.
—Cooper Burton, 538
Chicagoans are not happy with Mayor Johnson
Chicagoans are voting today on a ballot measure pushed by progressives that would institute a real estate transfer tax to fund programs addressing homelessness. Today's outcome could tell us something about the strength of Chicago's progressive movement … and its unpopular progressive mayor, who's made it a policy priority.
According to publicly available polling, while Chicagoans may have started out feeling good about Mayor Brandon Johnson, their opinion quickly soured. According to Chicago-based Victory Research, Johnson's approval when he first took office in May was at 63 percent. Five months later, in October, Echelon Insights/Illinois Policy Institute found his approval to be just 28 percent, with 50 percent of voters disapproving of his job performance. By January, Tulchin Research/Stand for Children registered an approval rating of just 21 percent, with 70 percent saying his performance was "only fair" or "poor," while Echelon Insights/Illinois Policy Institute marked his approval at 29 percent and disapproval at 57 percent.
The January Echelon Insights survey also asked respondents if they approved of Johnson's handling of various issues facing the city. The mayor received the lowest ratings on "housing and homelessness" (20 percent approve, 68 percent disapprove), "management of immigrants transported to the city" (23 percent approve, 69 percent disapprove), and "crime and public safety" (24 percent approve, 66 percent disapprove).
—Mary Radcliffe, 538