Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary
538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Republicans have their candidate in Ohio's competitive 13th District
In Ohio's 13th District, former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin is projected to win, according to ABC News. With 27 percent of the expected vote reporting, Coughlin is way out ahead with 67 percent of the vote, putting him well ahead of Hudson City Councilor Chris Banweg, who has 26 percent. Coughlin had a slight fundraising edge over Banweg, but it wasn't evident coming into the election if one candidate had a clear upper hand. Turns out, Coughlin did. Now he'll face Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes in the purple seat that sits around Akron, south of Cleveland, one that Biden would have only carried by 3 percentage points in 2020.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Tough night for Chicago progressives
As Cooper mentioned earlier, the Chicago tax reform measure supported by Mayor Johnson is currently behind: With 66 percent of the expected vote in, "no" leads 54 to 46 percent, according to the Associated Press. In another blow to Chicago-area progressives, their preferred candidate is also behind in the Cook County State's Attorney election. According to the Associated Press, progressive Clayton Harris III is losing 52 to 48 percent to moderate retired Judge Eileen O'Neill Burke, with 73 percent of the expected vote counted.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Checking in on Democratic women
In Illinois's 6th District, ABC News reports that Manoor Ahmad is projected to lose against incumbent Sean Casten. With a little more than half of the expected vote in, she's gotten about 15 percent of the vote. Ahmad, who was born in Pakistan, had advocated for a permanent cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas War. She'd also endorsed Rep. Ro Khanna's "Poltiical Reform Resolution" and increased federal spending on immigration lawyers and judges as immigration reform. Meanwhile, Casten joined a resolution condeming the Oct. 7 attacks and declaring support for Israel at the beginning of the conflict, but has also called for humanitarian pauses and outlined the accountability he feels is necessary for a cease-fire.
Progressive activist Kina Collins and Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin are also projected to lose their bids challenging incumbent Danny Davis in Illinois's 7th District. With over 60 percent of the expected vote reporting, Davis has 52 percent of the vote to Conyears-Ervin's 21 percent and Collins's 19 percent. Davis is almost certain to hold his seat this fall in the safe blue district.
—Monica Potts, 538
Merrin starting to pull away in Ohio's 9th
With 39 percent of the expected vote in, Merrin is slightly ahead in the 9th District with 45 percent of the vote so far, and Riedel is at 42 percent. As my colleagues chatted about earlier, the 9th may be one of the tests of Trump's strength when it comes to swaying voters in the primaries, at least. While his endorsement of Merrin came late in the game, part of the reason Merrin was recruited was because Riedel, the party's previous pick, had been caught being slightly critical of Trump. It's not just a question of whether Trump has remade the party in his image: It's also about whether it tolerates dissent.
—Monica Potts, 538
Final check-in on Democratic women
In Ohio's 15th District, Zerqa Abid, an anti-violence and anti-gang advocate in the Columbus area, is projected to lose her primary against former state Rep. Adam Miller, according to ABC News. Miller will face Republican incumbent Mike Carey in the fall. The district is fairly safely Republican, and Carey received Trump's endorsement when he first ran in an open special primary in 2021.
In all, 13 of the 17 Democratic women running tonight are projected to win their primaries, including nine incumbents.
—Monica Potts, 538