Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary

538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.

November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.

Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Bost holding his own

In Illinois' 12th District, Bost is ahead of challenger Bailey by 10 percentage points, 55 to 45 percent, with 36 percent of the expected vote in. But there's still a lot of vote to be counted in the eastern part of the district, where Bailey is stronger.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


An embattled county prosecutor in Ohio is hanging onto his seat

In Cuyahoga County, Ohio, home to Cleveland, incumbent Prosecutor Michael O'Malley is fending off a strong challenger from the left, former public defender Matthew Ahn. O'Malley has been criticized for a string of wrongful convictions and death sentences, but currently leads Ahn 64 to 36 percent, with 20 percent of ballot scanners in the county reporting, according to the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections.

—Cooper Burton, 538


The curious case of Derek Myers

For those of you who aren't familiar with Derek Myers, the 31-year-old who accidentally sent out a concession statement several hours before polls closed, you're in for a real treat. The Cincinnati Enquirer recently wrote a pretty comprehensive expose into his past legal troubles, which is definitely worth reading (especially given that Myers has filed a libel suit against the paper).

Also worth reading is Myers' response to the reporters who wrote the article, which the Enquirer published in full and which included such gems as when Myers says he once told a deputy who pulled him over for speeding that he "was not trained enough to handle someone of Derek's caliber," and later tells the reporter, "you are playing in dangerous waters, my little friend."

If that's not enough for you, Myers previously made news last year for his brief stint working for embattled New York Rep. George Santos, who he accused of sexual harassment.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Final check-in on Democratic women

In Ohio's 15th District, Zerqa Abid, an anti-violence and anti-gang advocate in the Columbus area, is projected to lose her primary against former state Rep. Adam Miller, according to ABC News. Miller will face Republican incumbent Mike Carey in the fall. The district is fairly safely Republican, and Carey received Trump's endorsement when he first ran in an open special primary in 2021.

In all, 13 of the 17 Democratic women running tonight are projected to win their primaries, including nine incumbents.

—Monica Potts, 538


How geography has helped make for a close Illinois's 12th District GOP primary

With 68 percent of the expected vote reporting, Bost leads Bailey 53 percent to 47 percent in the Republican primary in Illinois's 12th District. But Bost looks to be on pace for a potentially narrower win — and perhaps could even lose. After the 2020 Census, Illinois Democrats drew a gerrymander that packed more Republican-leaning turf into Bost's 12th District in southern Illinois, which he had represented since 2015. About half of the new-look version of the seat had been in Bost's old district, but much of the eastern part of the seat was new to him. Meanwhile, Bailey's old state Senate seat made up a large chunk of that eastern section, giving him a geographical base of support for this primary despite facing the incumbent Bost.

As things stand, Bost is winning about 70 percent of the vote so far in the area he represented prior to the 2022 election, while Bailey is winning 73 percent in the counties that were in his old state Senate seat. The two are running about even in the remaining turf. The good news for Bost is that more of the primary vote will likely come from his neck of the woods. But the good news for Bailey is that more outstanding votes are likely left to be counted in his area of the district. A back of the envelope calculation based on each candidate's showing so far would put Bost up about 51 percent to 49 percent by the time all is said and done, but that is too close to call.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538