Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary
538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Polls have now closed in California
Polls are now closed in the Golden State, where a special election is taking place to fill the seat of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for the remainder of his term. State Assemblymember Vince Fong led in the regular top-two primary two weeks ago, and is favored to ultimately win this race as well. But results in California usually take quite a while to fully come in since a large proportion of voters vote by mail. And it might not end with today's contest either: If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote today, the top two vote-getters will advance to a special general election in May.
—Cooper Burton, 538
Republicans put their faith in another rich guy
Moreno’s nomination in Ohio continues a trend of Republicans entrusting their Senate hopes to a coterie of very wealthy men (and one woman, Nella Domenici in New Mexico). In almost every single competitive Senate race, the likely Republican nominee is a politically inexperienced but very wealthy man, each of whom is self-funding to some degree. While Moreno isn’t as wealthy as Tim Sheehy in Montana, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin or Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, he certainly fits the mold. And if Republicans come up short in their efforts to flip the chamber this fall, I think there will be a lot of focus on how the party eschewed candidates with experience winning races in favor of neophytes, especially when Democrats have such strong incumbents.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Checking in on anti-abortion Republican candidates
Of the 29 anti-abortion Republican candidates we're tracking, 15 have been projected to win per ABC News, including 6 incumbents. Twelve challengers are projected to lose their races (though, of course, many were running in the same contests, like the crowded Ohio 2nd District race). In the only race on this list that's not yet projected, Illinois's 12th District, incumbent Mike Bost is leading Darren Bailey — both are on the list. With abortion shaping up to be an important issue in the fall, these candidates have all made pro-life statements without saying abortion should be left to the states. That could signal their willingness to support a national abortion ban, as some Republican and national anti-abortion groups are advocating for.
—Monica Potts, 538
Rulli projected to win
In Ohio’s 6th District, Michael Rulli is projected to defeat Reggie Stoltzfus in the Republican primary, according to ABC News. Rulli currently leads by about 9 percentage points in the regularly scheduled primary and 8 points in the special election primary to succeed Rep. Bill Johnson, with over 80 percent of the expected vote reporting in each. Because the district is solidly Republican, Rulli will likely be the next member of Congress. A special election in a few months will send him to D.C., where he’ll fill out the remainder of Johnson’s term.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
How worried should Democrats be about the polls?
The general election campaign has only just begun, and already the presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business. At a recent campaign stop, Biden suggested the polls showing him losing to Trump nationally and in all the major battleground states may not be accurate because it takes “six zillion calls to get one person on their cell phone.”
In the latest installment of the 538 Politics podcast we assess whether Biden has a point and what we should make of general election polls seven and a half months out from voting. We also look back at a viral YouGov poll that showed 20 percent of young Americans believe the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be entirely bogus. Plus, we tackle the main event of the evening — the Republican Senate race in Ohio.
If you want to take a listen while we wait for results to come in, smash the play button below!
—Galen Druke, 538